WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:30 AM CDT
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
11 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 8-2-0 - 1 void
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -130
Projection
3.7
Proj. gap
-1.8
Model win
85.7%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+32.9%
Model-implied EV
+51.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 1.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 85.7% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +32.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.7% model win, +32.9% no-vig edge, and +51.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
OVER 41.5
fanduel -114
Projection
77.4
Proj. gap
+35.9
Model win
85.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+35.4%
Model-implied EV
+60.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 77.4 is 35.9 above the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 85.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.4% model win, +35.4% no-vig edge, and +60.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 35 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -162
Projection
4.2
Proj. gap
-1.3
Model win
80.6%
No-vig market
57.9%
No-vig edge
+22.7%
Model-implied EV
+30.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 1.3 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.6% vs 57.9% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.6% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +30.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
UNDER 46.5
fanduel -114
Projection
33.2
Proj. gap
-13.3
Model win
78.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+28.6%
Model-implied EV
+47.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 33.2 is 13.3 below the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 41 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 64.5
fanduel -114
Projection
51.7
Proj. gap
-12.8
Model win
77.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+27.8%
Model-implied EV
+46.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.7 is 12.8 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 77.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.8% model win, +27.8% no-vig edge, and +46.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 16 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 90.5
fanduel -114
Projection
79.8
Proj. gap
-10.7
Model win
74.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+24.1%
Model-implied EV
+39.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 79.8 is 10.7 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +39.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 95 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -200
Projection
0.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
71.1%
No-vig market
62.3%
No-vig edge
+8.8%
Model-implied EV
+6.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.8 is 0.7 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.1% vs 62.3% no-vig market probability creates a +8.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.1% model win, +8.8% no-vig edge, and +6.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 2.5
fanduel -102
Projection
2.1
Proj. gap
-0.4
Model win
70.1%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+22.9%
Model-implied EV
+38.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.1 is 0.4 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +38.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
WIN
UNDER 19.5
fanduel -114
Projection
17.4
Proj. gap
-2.1
Model win
68.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.9%
Model-implied EV
+29.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 17.4 is 2.1 below the 19.5 line.
Model win probability 68.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.9% model win, +18.9% no-vig edge, and +29.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receiving yards
VOID
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -112
Projection
4.5
Proj. gap
-0.0
Model win
63.7%
No-vig market
49.4%
No-vig edge
+14.3%
Model-implied EV
+20.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 63.7% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +14.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.7% model win, +14.3% no-vig edge, and +20.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
WIN
UNDER 212.5
fanduel -114
Projection
186.2
Proj. gap
-26.3
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 186.2 is 26.3 below the 212.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 46 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.8%
No-vig market53.8%
No-vig edge+4.0%
Model-implied EV+0.2%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 224.5
fanduel -114
Projection216.0
Proj. gap-8.5
Model win55.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.8%
Model-implied EV+4.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection62.4
Proj. gap+7.9
Model win45.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.3%
Model-implied EV-14.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -108
Projection4.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win57.4%
No-vig market48.6%
No-vig edge+8.8%
Model-implied EV+10.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection48.1
Proj. gap+14.6
Model win54.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +116
Projection5.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win52.3%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge+9.0%
Model-implied EV+12.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 55.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.3
Proj. gap+12.8
Model win51.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-3.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154