WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
11 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.6
Proj. gap
+38.1
Model win
87.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+37.2%
Model-implied EV
+63.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.6 is 38.1 above the 20.5 line.
Model win probability 87.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +37.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 87.2% model win, +37.2% no-vig edge, and +63.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 47 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection
71.9
Proj. gap
+33.4
Model win
82.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+32.2%
Model-implied EV
+54.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 71.9 is 33.4 above the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 82.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.2% model win, +32.2% no-vig edge, and +54.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection
28.8
Proj. gap
-9.7
Model win
75.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.2%
Model-implied EV
+41.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 28.8 is 9.7 below the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 18 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 2.5
fanduel +118
Projection
4.5
Proj. gap
+2.0
Model win
73.6%
No-vig market
42.8%
No-vig edge
+30.8%
Model-implied EV
+60.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 2.0 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 73.6% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +30.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.6% model win, +30.8% no-vig edge, and +60.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 64.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.8
Proj. gap
-5.7
Model win
72.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+22.1%
Model-implied EV
+35.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.8 is 5.7 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +35.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 70 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -102
Projection
2.4
Proj. gap
+0.9
Model win
71.3%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+24.1%
Model-implied EV
+41.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 2 passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -138
Projection
4.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
69.4%
No-vig market
54.2%
No-vig edge
+15.2%
Model-implied EV
+19.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.4% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +15.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.4% model win, +15.2% no-vig edge, and +19.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -108
Projection
4.5
Proj. gap
-0.0
Model win
64.3%
No-vig market
48.6%
No-vig edge
+15.7%
Model-implied EV
+23.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel +114
Projection
5.1
Proj. gap
+1.6
Model win
64.0%
No-vig market
43.7%
No-vig edge
+20.4%
Model-implied EV
+37.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.1 is 1.6 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 64.0% vs 43.7% no-vig market probability creates a +20.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.0% model win, +20.4% no-vig edge, and +37.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
LOSS
OVER 221.5
fanduel -114
Projection
247.2
Proj. gap
+25.7
Model win
59.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.1%
Model-implied EV
+11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 247.2 is 25.7 above the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 214 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 229.5
fanduel -114
Projection
214.8
Proj. gap
-14.7
Model win
58.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+8.5%
Model-implied EV
+9.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 214.8 is 14.7 below the 229.5 line.
Model win probability 58.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.5% model win, +8.5% no-vig edge, and +9.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 218 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -154
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win59.7%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge+3.0%
Model-implied EV-1.6%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 19.5
fanduel -114
Projection25.5
Proj. gap+6.0
Model win43.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.3%
Model-implied EV-17.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection69.0
Proj. gap+3.5
Model win41.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.7%
Model-implied EV-22.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -148
Projection5.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.0%
No-vig market55.9%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-16.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 59.5
fanduel -114
Projection72.7
Proj. gap+13.2
Model win53.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.5%
Model-implied EV+0.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 56.5
fanduel -114
Projection61.3
Proj. gap+4.8
Model win39.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154