WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions

10 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-7-0 - 2 voids
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +22.8% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +37.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 87.5
fanduel -114
Projection 63.0
Proj. gap -24.5
Model win 82.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +32.4%
Model-implied EV +54.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 63.0 is 24.5 below the 87.5 line.
Model win probability 82.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 82.4% model win, +32.4% no-vig edge, and +54.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 99 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Adonai Mitchell

Receiving yards
VOID
UNDER 47.5
fanduel -114
Projection 31.1
Proj. gap -16.4
Model win 80.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.5%
Model-implied EV +51.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 31.1 is 16.4 below the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 80.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.5% model win, +30.5% no-vig edge, and +51.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection 45.3
Proj. gap -16.2
Model win 80.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.3%
Model-implied EV +50.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 45.3 is 16.2 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 80.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.3% model win, +30.3% no-vig edge, and +50.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 107 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -136
Projection 4.4
Proj. gap -1.1
Model win 78.7%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +24.9%
Model-implied EV +36.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.4 is 1.1 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 78.7% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +24.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.7% model win, +24.9% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 10 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Adonai Mitchell

Receptions
VOID
UNDER 3.5
fanduel +112
Projection 2.8
Proj. gap -0.7
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 44.1%
No-vig edge +31.1%
Model-implied EV +59.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 0.7 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +31.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +31.1% no-vig edge, and +59.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

Jameson Williams

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection 81.0
Proj. gap +26.5
Model win 73.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +23.1%
Model-implied EV +37.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 81.0 is 26.5 above the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 73.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.1% model win, +23.1% no-vig edge, and +37.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 49 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Geno Smith

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 221.5
fanduel -114
Projection 186.4
Proj. gap -35.1
Model win 67.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +17.8%
Model-implied EV +27.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 186.4 is 35.1 below the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 321 passing yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.5
Proj. gap -0.0
Model win 64.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +14.1%
Model-implied EV +20.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.1% model win, +14.1% no-vig edge, and +20.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
#9 MODEL PLAY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 75.5
fanduel -114
Projection 95.7
Proj. gap +20.2
Model win 63.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.1%
Model-implied EV +18.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 95.7 is 20.2 above the 75.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +18.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 19 receiving yards
#10 MODEL PLAY

Jared Goff

Passing yards
WIN
OVER 258.5
fanduel -114
Projection 288.8
Proj. gap +30.3
Model win 60.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.7%
Model-implied EV +13.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 288.8 is 30.3 above the 258.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +13.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 269 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 7.5
fanduel +130
Projection7.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.2%
No-vig market40.6%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-14.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Breece Hall

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 57.5
fanduel -114
Projection64.8
Proj. gap+7.3
Model win45.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Geno Smith

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win57.0%
No-vig market64.3%
No-vig edge-7.3%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection38.2
Proj. gap+2.7
Model win37.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.0%
Model-implied EV-30.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jameson Williams

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +124
Projection5.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.6%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+9.9%
Model-implied EV+15.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jared Goff

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -205
Projection1.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win58.7%
No-vig market62.9%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-12.6%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam LaPorta

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win38.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.2%
Model-implied EV-27.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam LaPorta

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 45.5
fanduel -114
Projection59.7
Proj. gap+14.2
Model win54.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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