WEEK 8 · Mon, Nov 2, 6:15 PM CST

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks

12 qualified model plays · 11 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 12 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 12 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 70.4% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +20.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +32.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Zach Charbonnet

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 32.5
fanduel -114
Projection 70.3
Proj. gap +37.8
Model win 85.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.2%
Model-implied EV +59.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 70.3 is 37.8 above the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 85.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 85.2% model win, +35.2% no-vig edge, and +59.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#2 MODEL PLAY

Kalif Raymond

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 16.5
fanduel -114
Projection 51.0
Proj. gap +34.5
Model win 83.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +33.7%
Model-implied EV +57.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.0 is 34.5 above the 16.5 line.
Model win probability 83.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.7% model win, +33.7% no-vig edge, and +57.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Emanuel Wilson

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection 53.8
Proj. gap +35.3
Model win 82.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +32.0%
Model-implied EV +54.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.8 is 35.3 above the 18.5 line.
Model win probability 82.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 82.0% model win, +32.0% no-vig edge, and +54.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#4 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 99.5
fanduel -114
Projection 94.9
Proj. gap -4.6
Model win 70.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +20.8%
Model-implied EV +33.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 94.9 is 4.6 below the 99.5 line.
Model win probability 70.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.8% model win, +20.8% no-vig edge, and +33.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 7.5
fanduel -140
Projection 7.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 70.3%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +15.8%
Model-implied EV +20.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 7.1 is 0.4 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 70.3% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +15.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.3% model win, +15.8% no-vig edge, and +20.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

Luther Burden III

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection 75.8
Proj. gap +24.3
Model win 70.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +20.1%
Model-implied EV +31.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 75.8 is 24.3 above the 51.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +31.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

AJ Barner

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -168
Projection 3.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 67.9%
No-vig market 58.6%
No-vig edge +9.3%
Model-implied EV +8.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 67.9% vs 58.6% no-vig market probability creates a +9.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.9% model win, +9.3% no-vig edge, and +8.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

Cooper Kupp

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection 51.9
Proj. gap +22.4
Model win 66.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.4%
Model-implied EV +24.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.9 is 22.4 above the 29.5 line.
Model win probability 66.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.4% model win, +16.4% no-vig edge, and +24.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#9 MODEL PLAY

D'Andre Swift

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.8
Proj. gap -2.7
Model win 65.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +15.7%
Model-implied EV +23.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.8 is 2.7 below the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#10 MODEL PLAY

Rome Odunze

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.7
Proj. gap +20.2
Model win 63.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.2%
Model-implied EV +18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.7 is 20.2 above the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#11 MODEL PLAY

Caleb Williams

Passing TDs
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel +136
Projection 1.9
Proj. gap +0.4
Model win 60.7%
No-vig market 39.6%
No-vig edge +21.0%
Model-implied EV +43.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.9 is 0.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 39.6% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +43.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#12 MODEL PLAY

Sam Darnold

Passing TDs
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -118
Projection 1.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 59.3%
No-vig market 50.6%
No-vig edge +8.7%
Model-implied EV +9.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.3% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.3% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +9.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection31.9
Proj. gap+3.4
Model win37.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.3%
Model-implied EV-29.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Caleb Williams

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 227.5
fanduel -114
Projection241.7
Proj. gap+14.2
Model win54.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Colston Loveland

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +116
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.1%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge-6.2%
Model-implied EV-19.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Colston Loveland

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection49.2
Proj. gap+6.7
Model win42.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.0%
Model-implied EV-21.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -160
Projection3.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win59.2%
No-vig market57.5%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-3.7%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kalif Raymond

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +140
Projection3.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.1%
No-vig market39.0%
No-vig edge+12.2%
Model-implied EV+22.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Luther Burden III

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +118
Projection5.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.8%
No-vig market42.8%
No-vig edge+5.0%
Model-implied EV+4.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rome Odunze

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +134
Projection3.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.6%
No-vig market39.9%
No-vig edge+3.7%
Model-implied EV+2.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam Darnold

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 237.5
fanduel -114
Projection229.2
Proj. gap-8.3
Model win55.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.4%
Model-implied EV+4.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Zach Charbonnet

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +134
Projection2.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.0%
No-vig market39.9%
No-vig edge+10.1%
Model-implied EV+17.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Zach Charbonnet

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 7.5
fanduel -114
Projection18.2
Proj. gap+10.7
Model win48.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-8.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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