WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 PM CDT

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

8 qualified model plays · 10 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-6-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +18.7% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +28.4% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Christian McCaffrey

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -140
Projection 4.3
Proj. gap -1.2
Model win 80.1%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +25.6%
Model-implied EV +37.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 1.2 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +25.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +25.6% no-vig edge, and +37.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

Christian McCaffrey

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection 34.1
Proj. gap -10.4
Model win 75.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.8%
Model-implied EV +42.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 34.1 is 10.4 below the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 75.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.8% model win, +25.8% no-vig edge, and +42.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 61 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Brock Purdy

Passing TDs
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -146
Projection 2.4
Proj. gap +0.9
Model win 71.3%
No-vig market 55.5%
No-vig edge +15.8%
Model-implied EV +20.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.4 is 0.9 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 71.3% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +15.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.3% model win, +15.8% no-vig edge, and +20.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
#4 MODEL PLAY

Drake London

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -114
Projection 5.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 71.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.0%
Model-implied EV +33.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.1 is 0.4 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 71.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.0% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +33.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Kyle Pitts

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection 60.0
Proj. gap +24.5
Model win 70.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +20.4%
Model-implied EV +32.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 60.0 is 24.5 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 70.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.4% model win, +20.4% no-vig edge, and +32.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 22 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Kyle Pitts

Receptions
WIN
OVER 3.5
fanduel +106
Projection 5.3
Proj. gap +1.8
Model win 67.8%
No-vig market 45.4%
No-vig edge +22.4%
Model-implied EV +39.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.3 is 1.8 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 45.4% no-vig market probability creates a +22.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +22.4% no-vig edge, and +39.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#7 MODEL PLAY

Bijan Robinson

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 24.5
fanduel -114
Projection 42.8
Proj. gap +18.3
Model win 60.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.4%
Model-implied EV +13.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 42.8 is 18.3 above the 24.5 line.
Model win probability 60.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.4% model win, +10.4% no-vig edge, and +13.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 59 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Christian McCaffrey

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection 79.4
Proj. gap +16.9
Model win 57.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +7.8%
Model-implied EV +8.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 79.4 is 16.9 above the 62.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +7.8% no-vig edge, and +8.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 39 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bijan Robinson

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 83.5
fanduel -114
Projection85.9
Proj. gap+2.4
Model win40.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bijan Robinson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -172
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.9%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-5.2%
Model-implied EV-14.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Brock Purdy

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 240.5
fanduel -114
Projection240.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win50.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Drake London

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection77.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win34.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-15.7%
Model-implied EV-35.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

George Kittle

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 5.5
fanduel -102
Projection5.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.5%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge-7.7%
Model-implied EV-21.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

George Kittle

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 66.5
fanduel -114
Projection69.7
Proj. gap+3.2
Model win37.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.5%
Model-implied EV-29.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahan Dotson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -205
Projection3.1
Proj. gap+1.6
Model win64.0%
No-vig market62.9%
No-vig edge+1.1%
Model-implied EV-4.8%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahan Dotson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection42.8
Proj. gap+13.3
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Penix Jr.

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -178
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win59.5%
No-vig market59.8%
No-vig edge-0.3%
Model-implied EV-7.1%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Penix Jr.

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 227.5
fanduel -114
Projection234.1
Proj. gap+6.6
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
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