WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 8:30 AM CDT

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints

9 qualified model plays · 9 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 65.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +14.8% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +21.4% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Kendre Miller

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection 36.5
Proj. gap -6.0
Model win 69.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.6%
Model-implied EV +30.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 36.5 is 6.0 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +19.6% no-vig edge, and +30.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 6 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

DK Metcalf

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -102
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 69.3%
No-vig market 47.2%
No-vig edge +22.1%
Model-implied EV +37.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.3% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.3% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +37.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#3 MODEL PLAY

Devaughn Vele

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -162
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 69.3%
No-vig market 57.9%
No-vig edge +11.5%
Model-implied EV +12.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.3% vs 57.9% no-vig market probability creates a +11.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.3% model win, +11.5% no-vig edge, and +12.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Alvin Kamara

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 16.5
fanduel -114
Projection 41.2
Proj. gap +24.7
Model win 69.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.2%
Model-implied EV +29.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 41.2 is 24.7 above the 16.5 line.
Model win probability 69.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 69.2% model win, +19.2% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 5 rushing yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Juwan Johnson

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 32.5
fanduel -114
Projection 55.2
Proj. gap +22.7
Model win 66.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.9%
Model-implied EV +25.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 55.2 is 22.7 above the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -130
Projection 1.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 63.8%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +10.9%
Model-implied EV +12.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 63.8% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +10.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.8% model win, +10.9% no-vig edge, and +12.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
#7 MODEL PLAY

Devaughn Vele

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 41.5
fanduel -114
Projection 60.9
Proj. gap +19.4
Model win 62.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +12.0%
Model-implied EV +16.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 60.9 is 19.4 above the 41.5 line.
Model win probability 62.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.0% model win, +12.0% no-vig edge, and +16.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 54 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Rico Dowdle

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 50.1
Proj. gap +18.6
Model win 60.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.7%
Model-implied EV +13.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 50.1 is 18.6 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +13.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 41 rushing yards
#9 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Shough

Passing yards
WIN
OVER 232.5
fanduel -114
Projection 261.4
Proj. gap +28.9
Model win 60.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.5%
Model-implied EV +13.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 261.4 is 28.9 above the 232.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 278 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 230.5
fanduel -114
Projection223.8
Proj. gap-6.7
Model win54.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chris Olave

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 5.5
fanduel -154
Projection6.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win46.6%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge-10.1%
Model-implied EV-23.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chris Olave

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 75.5
fanduel -114
Projection88.9
Proj. gap+13.4
Model win52.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.6%
Model-implied EV-1.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DK Metcalf

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection61.3
Proj. gap+6.8
Model win42.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.8%
Model-implied EV-20.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaylen Warren

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 63.5
fanduel -114
Projection65.8
Proj. gap+2.3
Model win40.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Juwan Johnson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection4.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.3%
No-vig market51.4%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-14.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -158
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win55.1%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-2.1%
Model-implied EV-10.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection17.0
Proj. gap+7.5
Model win43.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.5%
Model-implied EV-18.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tyler Shough

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -188
Projection1.1
Proj. gap-0.4
Model win64.3%
No-vig market61.0%
No-vig edge+3.3%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
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