WEEK 6 · Thu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos

10 qualified model plays · 9 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-7-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 73.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +23.8% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +38.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Emanuel Wilson

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 66.5
fanduel -114
Projection 35.5
Proj. gap -31.0
Model win 86.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +36.6%
Model-implied EV +62.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 35.5 is 31.0 below the 66.5 line.
Model win probability 86.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 86.6% model win, +36.6% no-vig edge, and +62.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 52 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Troy Franklin

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 16.5
fanduel -114
Projection 52.8
Proj. gap +36.3
Model win 85.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.6%
Model-implied EV +60.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.8 is 36.3 above the 16.5 line.
Model win probability 85.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.6% model win, +35.6% no-vig edge, and +60.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Courtland Sutton

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 67.7
Proj. gap +36.2
Model win 85.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +35.6%
Model-implied EV +60.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 67.7 is 36.2 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 85.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.6% model win, +35.6% no-vig edge, and +60.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 19 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Troy Franklin

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -125
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap +2.7
Model win 83.9%
No-vig market 51.9%
No-vig edge +32.0%
Model-implied EV +51.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 2.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 83.9% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +32.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.9% model win, +32.0% no-vig edge, and +51.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#5 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 91.5
fanduel -114
Projection 84.4
Proj. gap -7.1
Model win 73.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +23.3%
Model-implied EV +37.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 84.4 is 7.1 below the 91.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +23.3% no-vig edge, and +37.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 134 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 71.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.6%
Model-implied EV +34.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +21.6% no-vig edge, and +34.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
#7 MODEL PLAY

Cooper Kupp

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection 41.2
Proj. gap +20.7
Model win 63.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.5%
Model-implied EV +19.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 41.2 is 20.7 above the 20.5 line.
Model win probability 63.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.5% model win, +13.5% no-vig edge, and +19.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 50 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

J.K. Dobbins

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 47.5
fanduel -114
Projection 68.0
Proj. gap +20.5
Model win 63.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.1%
Model-implied EV +18.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 68.0 is 20.5 above the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +18.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 41 rushing yards
#9 MODEL PLAY

Courtland Sutton

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel +116
Projection 4.9
Proj. gap +1.4
Model win 60.9%
No-vig market 43.3%
No-vig edge +17.6%
Model-implied EV +31.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.9 is 1.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +17.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +17.6% no-vig edge, and +31.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#10 MODEL PLAY

Bo Nix

Passing yards
LOSS
OVER 202.5
fanduel -114
Projection 227.2
Proj. gap +24.7
Model win 58.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.7%
Model-implied EV +10.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 227.2 is 24.7 above the 202.5 line.
Model win probability 58.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.7% model win, +8.7% no-vig edge, and +10.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 107 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -118
Projection3.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win49.5%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge-1.1%
Model-implied EV-8.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection31.9
Proj. gap+9.4
Model win46.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.6%
Model-implied EV-12.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bo Nix

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -235
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win60.1%
No-vig market65.6%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-14.4%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bo Nix

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection25.4
Proj. gap+12.9
Model win52.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +116
Projection3.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win50.9%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge+7.6%
Model-implied EV+9.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Evan Engram

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -158
Projection2.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.8%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-15.3%
Model-implied EV-31.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Evan Engram

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection26.3
Proj. gap+3.8
Model win38.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.7%
Model-implied EV-28.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -122
Projection6.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.2%
No-vig market51.6%
No-vig edge-13.5%
Model-implied EV-30.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaylen Waddle

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection57.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win44.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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