WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
6 qualified model plays · 9 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-2-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 17.5
fanduel -114
Projection
49.4
Proj. gap
+31.9
Model win
80.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+30.2%
Model-implied EV
+50.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 49.4 is 31.9 above the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 80.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.2% model win, +30.2% no-vig edge, and +50.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 16 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection
3.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
77.3%
No-vig market
53.8%
No-vig edge
+23.5%
Model-implied EV
+34.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.3% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +23.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.3% model win, +23.5% no-vig edge, and +34.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -114
Projection
3.7
Proj. gap
+2.2
Model win
76.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+26.8%
Model-implied EV
+44.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 2.2 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 76.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.8% model win, +26.8% no-vig edge, and +44.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
LOSS
OVER 36.5
fanduel -114
Projection
64.1
Proj. gap
+27.6
Model win
75.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.1%
Model-implied EV
+40.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.1 is 27.6 above the 36.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +40.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 18 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection
69.2
Proj. gap
+19.7
Model win
61.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+11.6%
Model-implied EV
+15.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.2 is 19.7 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 68 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -138
Projection
1.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
61.4%
No-vig market
54.2%
No-vig edge
+7.2%
Model-implied EV
+6.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 61.4% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +7.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.4% model win, +7.2% no-vig edge, and +6.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 223.5
fanduel -114
Projection223.1
Proj. gap-0.4
Model win51.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 14.5
fanduel -114
Projection26.1
Proj. gap+11.6
Model win51.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +120
Projection4.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win52.0%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge+9.5%
Model-implied EV+14.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection53.8
Proj. gap+2.3
Model win36.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.6%
Model-implied EV-31.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -240
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win55.0%
No-vig market65.9%
No-vig edge-10.9%
Model-implied EV-22.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 199.5
fanduel -114
Projection205.9
Proj. gap+6.4
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 23.5
fanduel -114
Projection29.4
Proj. gap+5.9
Model win43.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.3%
Model-implied EV-17.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection32.0
Proj. gap+1.5
Model win39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection51.0
Proj. gap+13.5
Model win53.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.8%
Model-implied EV+0.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796