WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens

10 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-4-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 77.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.3% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +36.8% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection 81.6
Proj. gap +43.1
Model win 91.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +41.3%
Model-implied EV +71.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 81.6 is 43.1 above the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 91.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.3% model win, +41.3% no-vig edge, and +71.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 19 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Wan'Dale Robinson

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel -162
Projection 6.7
Proj. gap +3.2
Model win 90.6%
No-vig market 57.9%
No-vig edge +32.8%
Model-implied EV +46.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.7 is 3.2 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 90.6% vs 57.9% no-vig market probability creates a +32.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 90.6% model win, +32.8% no-vig edge, and +46.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#3 MODEL PLAY

Elic Ayomanor

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.3
Proj. gap +37.8
Model win 86.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +36.8%
Model-implied EV +63.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.3 is 37.8 above the 20.5 line.
Model win probability 86.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.8% model win, +36.8% no-vig edge, and +63.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 22 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Mark Andrews

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -180
Projection 2.7
Proj. gap -1.8
Model win 85.3%
No-vig market 60.1%
No-vig edge +25.3%
Model-implied EV +32.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.7 is 1.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 85.3% vs 60.1% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +32.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Elic Ayomanor

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -154
Projection 3.9
Proj. gap +2.4
Model win 79.1%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +22.4%
Model-implied EV +30.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.9 is 2.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +22.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +22.4% no-vig edge, and +30.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#6 MODEL PLAY

Mark Andrews

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection 28.7
Proj. gap -8.8
Model win 74.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.7%
Model-implied EV +40.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 28.7 is 8.8 below the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +24.7% no-vig edge, and +40.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 27 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Cam Ward

Passing TDs
WIN
OVER 0.5
fanduel -180
Projection 1.4
Proj. gap +0.9
Model win 71.1%
No-vig market 60.1%
No-vig edge +11.1%
Model-implied EV +10.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.4 is 0.9 above the 0.5 line.
Model win probability 71.1% vs 60.1% no-vig market probability creates a +11.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 71.1% model win, +11.1% no-vig edge, and +10.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
#8 MODEL PLAY

Tony Pollard

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 45.5
fanduel -114
Projection 69.3
Proj. gap +23.8
Model win 68.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.1%
Model-implied EV +27.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.3 is 23.8 above the 45.5 line.
Model win probability 68.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 68.1% model win, +18.1% no-vig edge, and +27.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 48 rushing yards
#9 MODEL PLAY

Lamar Jackson

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 225.5
fanduel -114
Projection 193.6
Proj. gap -31.9
Model win 65.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +15.7%
Model-implied EV +23.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 193.6 is 31.9 below the 225.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 222 passing yards
#10 MODEL PLAY

Cam Ward

Passing yards
WIN
OVER 188.5
fanduel -114
Projection 224.7
Proj. gap +36.2
Model win 64.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +14.7%
Model-implied EV +21.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 224.7 is 36.2 above the 188.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +21.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 222 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Derrick Henry

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 96.5
fanduel -114
Projection108.9
Proj. gap+12.4
Model win52.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.3%
Model-implied EV-1.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Gunnar Helm

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -158
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win44.6%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-12.6%
Model-implied EV-27.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Gunnar Helm

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection23.9
Proj. gap+5.4
Model win40.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Lamar Jackson

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +102
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.8%
No-vig market46.2%
No-vig edge+10.6%
Model-implied EV+14.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tyjae Spears

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 15.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.6
Proj. gap+13.1
Model win53.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.0%
Model-implied EV-0.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
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