WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
6 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-2-0 - 2 voids
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -114
Projection
2.8
Proj. gap
+1.3
Model win
83.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+33.9%
Model-implied EV
+57.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 83.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 83.9% model win, +33.9% no-vig edge, and +57.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -148
Projection
4.0
Proj. gap
-1.5
Model win
82.8%
No-vig market
55.9%
No-vig edge
+26.9%
Model-implied EV
+38.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 1.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 82.8% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +26.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.8% model win, +26.9% no-vig edge, and +38.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
WIN
UNDER 74.5
fanduel -114
Projection
55.5
Proj. gap
-19.0
Model win
82.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+32.7%
Model-implied EV
+55.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 55.5 is 19.0 below the 74.5 line.
Model win probability 82.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.7% model win, +32.7% no-vig edge, and +55.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 32 receiving yards
VOID
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +116
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-1.2
Model win
80.1%
No-vig market
43.3%
No-vig edge
+36.8%
Model-implied EV
+73.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 1.2 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +36.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +36.8% no-vig edge, and +73.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
VOID
UNDER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection
55.8
Proj. gap
-12.7
Model win
77.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+27.7%
Model-implied EV
+45.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 55.8 is 12.7 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 77.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.7% model win, +27.7% no-vig edge, and +45.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
LOSS
OVER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.9
Proj. gap
+18.4
Model win
60.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.2%
Model-implied EV
+13.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.9 is 18.4 above the 40.5 line.
Model win probability 60.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.2% model win, +10.2% no-vig edge, and +13.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 14 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +182
Projection1.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win53.9%
No-vig market33.2%
No-vig edge+20.7%
Model-implied EV+51.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 204.5
fanduel -114
Projection194.5
Proj. gap-10.0
Model win56.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.2%
Model-implied EV+5.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 24.5
fanduel -114
Projection25.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win37.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.3%
Model-implied EV-29.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 58.5
fanduel -114
Projection74.1
Proj. gap+15.6
Model win56.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+5.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 252.5
fanduel -114
Projection266.0
Proj. gap+13.5
Model win54.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 78.5
fanduel -114
Projection90.6
Proj. gap+12.1
Model win51.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.8%
Model-implied EV-2.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796