WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 7-0-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +116
Projection
3.7
Proj. gap
-0.8
Model win
75.4%
No-vig market
43.3%
No-vig edge
+32.1%
Model-implied EV
+62.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +32.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +32.1% no-vig edge, and +62.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
OVER 2.5
fanduel -130
Projection
4.6
Proj. gap
+2.1
Model win
74.0%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+21.1%
Model-implied EV
+30.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.6 is 2.1 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +21.1% no-vig edge, and +30.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
WIN
UNDER 246.5
fanduel -114
Projection
203.9
Proj. gap
-42.6
Model win
72.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+22.9%
Model-implied EV
+36.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 203.9 is 42.6 below the 246.5 line.
Model win probability 72.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 72.9% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +36.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 197 passing yards
WIN
OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection
52.8
Proj. gap
+25.3
Model win
71.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+21.5%
Model-implied EV
+34.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.8 is 25.3 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 71.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.5% model win, +21.5% no-vig edge, and +34.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 31 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection
65.0
Proj. gap
-2.5
Model win
69.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+19.2%
Model-implied EV
+29.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 65.0 is 2.5 below the 67.5 line.
Model win probability 69.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.2% model win, +19.2% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 47 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -138
Projection
3.4
Proj. gap
-0.1
Model win
64.6%
No-vig market
54.2%
No-vig edge
+10.4%
Model-implied EV
+11.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.4 is 0.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +10.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +10.4% no-vig edge, and +11.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
OVER 39.5
fanduel -114
Projection
57.2
Proj. gap
+17.7
Model win
59.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.6%
Model-implied EV
+11.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.2 is 17.7 above the 39.5 line.
Model win probability 59.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.6% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +11.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 42 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection75.0
Proj. gap+14.5
Model win54.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.8%
Model-implied EV+2.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -178
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.9%
No-vig market59.8%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-15.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.8
Proj. gap+9.3
Model win46.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-13.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 36.5
fanduel -114
Projection47.2
Proj. gap+10.7
Model win48.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-8.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +114
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.2%
No-vig market43.7%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+7.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -146
Projection4.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.7%
No-vig market55.5%
No-vig edge-9.8%
Model-implied EV-22.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154