WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 3:05 PM CDT
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -158
Projection
3.1
Proj. gap
-1.4
Model win
82.0%
No-vig market
57.2%
No-vig edge
+24.9%
Model-implied EV
+34.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.1 is 1.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 82.0% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +24.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.0% model win, +24.9% no-vig edge, and +34.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection
35.3
Proj. gap
-13.2
Model win
78.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+28.6%
Model-implied EV
+47.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 35.3 is 13.2 below the 48.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 62 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +100
Projection
4.7
Proj. gap
-0.8
Model win
76.2%
No-vig market
46.8%
No-vig edge
+29.4%
Model-implied EV
+52.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 76.2% vs 46.8% no-vig market probability creates a +29.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.2% model win, +29.4% no-vig edge, and +52.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -180
Projection
2.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
74.7%
No-vig market
60.1%
No-vig edge
+14.6%
Model-implied EV
+16.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 0.7 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 60.1% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +16.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
UNDER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection
62.1
Proj. gap
-6.4
Model win
72.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+22.8%
Model-implied EV
+36.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 62.1 is 6.4 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 72.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.8% model win, +22.8% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 32 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 216.5
fanduel -114
Projection
181.2
Proj. gap
-35.3
Model win
68.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.0%
Model-implied EV
+27.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 181.2 is 35.3 below the 216.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +18.0% no-vig edge, and +27.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 217 passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection
27.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
67.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.1%
Model-implied EV
+26.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 27.0 is 0.5 below the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 67.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.1% model win, +17.1% no-vig edge, and +26.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 56 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -118
Projection
3.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
66.9%
No-vig market
50.6%
No-vig edge
+16.2%
Model-implied EV
+23.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 0.2 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +16.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.2% no-vig edge, and +23.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -192
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win55.8%
No-vig market61.4%
No-vig edge-5.6%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 57.5
fanduel -114
Projection57.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win37.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.7%
Model-implied EV-30.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +120
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.9%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge+6.4%
Model-implied EV+7.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection40.9
Proj. gap+5.4
Model win40.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-23.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection32.6
Proj. gap+2.1
Model win36.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.7%
Model-implied EV-31.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154