WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
4 qualified model plays · 11 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-1-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -102
Projection
2.5
Proj. gap
+1.0
Model win
76.4%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+29.2%
Model-implied EV
+51.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.5 is 1.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +29.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +29.2% no-vig edge, and +51.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 3 passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -130
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
67.8%
No-vig market
52.8%
No-vig edge
+15.0%
Model-implied EV
+20.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +15.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +15.0% no-vig edge, and +20.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -140
Projection
4.5
Proj. gap
-0.0
Model win
64.4%
No-vig market
54.6%
No-vig edge
+9.8%
Model-implied EV
+10.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 0.0 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 64.4% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +9.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.4% model win, +9.8% no-vig edge, and +10.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
WIN
UNDER 63.5
fanduel -114
Projection
63.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
62.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.9%
Model-implied EV
+18.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 63.3 is 0.2 below the 63.5 line.
Model win probability 62.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.9% model win, +12.9% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 61 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection1.1
Proj. gap-0.4
Model win63.6%
No-vig market64.3%
No-vig edge-0.7%
Model-implied EV-7.5%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 220.5
fanduel -114
Projection224.1
Proj. gap+3.6
Model win50.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +106
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.2%
No-vig market45.4%
No-vig edge+2.8%
Model-implied EV-0.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.6
Proj. gap+7.1
Model win42.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.1%
Model-implied EV-19.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 52.5
fanduel -114
Projection63.1
Proj. gap+10.6
Model win48.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -138
Projection6.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.1%
No-vig market54.2%
No-vig edge-13.1%
Model-implied EV-29.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection86.8
Proj. gap+10.3
Model win48.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.0%
Model-implied EV-10.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 253.5
fanduel -114
Projection257.6
Proj. gap+4.1
Model win51.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.6%
Model-implied EV-3.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -148
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win36.7%
No-vig market55.9%
No-vig edge-19.2%
Model-implied EV-38.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection39.3
Proj. gap+4.8
Model win39.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 53.5
fanduel -114
Projection66.6
Proj. gap+13.1
Model win52.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.2%
Model-implied EV-2.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154