WEEK 3 · Thu, Sep 24, 7:15 PM CDT
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
12 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-8-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +104
Projection
3.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
77.1%
No-vig market
45.8%
No-vig edge
+31.3%
Model-implied EV
+57.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 77.1% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +31.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.1% model win, +31.3% no-vig edge, and +57.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 69.5
fanduel -114
Projection
59.9
Proj. gap
-9.6
Model win
75.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.1%
Model-implied EV
+40.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 59.9 is 9.6 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +40.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 96 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -140
Projection
4.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
74.7%
No-vig market
54.6%
No-vig edge
+20.1%
Model-implied EV
+28.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.8 is 0.7 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +28.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
LOSS
OVER 10.5
fanduel -114
Projection
34.4
Proj. gap
+23.9
Model win
69.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+19.1%
Model-implied EV
+29.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 34.4 is 23.9 above the 10.5 line.
Model win probability 69.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.1% model win, +19.1% no-vig edge, and +29.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection
39.0
Proj. gap
-1.5
Model win
68.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.2%
Model-implied EV
+28.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 39.0 is 1.5 below the 40.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 19 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 77.5
fanduel -114
Projection
100.6
Proj. gap
+23.1
Model win
67.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.6%
Model-implied EV
+26.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 100.6 is 23.1 above the 77.5 line.
Model win probability 67.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.6% model win, +17.6% no-vig edge, and +26.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 194 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -102
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
67.5%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+20.3%
Model-implied EV
+33.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 67.5% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +20.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.5% model win, +20.3% no-vig edge, and +33.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel +136
Projection
3.0
Proj. gap
+1.5
Model win
62.7%
No-vig market
39.6%
No-vig edge
+23.0%
Model-implied EV
+47.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.0 is 1.5 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 62.7% vs 39.6% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.7% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +47.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel -114
Projection
5.0
Proj. gap
+1.5
Model win
62.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.2%
Model-implied EV
+16.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.0 is 1.5 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 62.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.2% model win, +12.2% no-vig edge, and +16.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
LOSS
OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection
54.1
Proj. gap
+18.6
Model win
60.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.9%
Model-implied EV
+14.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.1 is 18.6 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +10.9% no-vig edge, and +14.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 46.5
fanduel -114
Projection
64.9
Proj. gap
+18.4
Model win
60.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.5%
Model-implied EV
+13.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.9 is 18.4 above the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 26 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 226.5
fanduel -114
Projection
210.8
Proj. gap
-15.7
Model win
59.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.1%
Model-implied EV
+11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 210.8 is 15.7 below the 226.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 312 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.1
Proj. gap+2.6
Model win36.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.2%
Model-implied EV-31.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -162
Projection2.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win59.2%
No-vig market57.9%
No-vig edge+1.3%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 19.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.2
Proj. gap+14.7
Model win54.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.9%
Model-implied EV+3.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -118
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win54.8%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge+4.2%
Model-implied EV+1.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -154
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win52.5%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-13.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154