WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 3:05 PM CST

Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders

11 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 11 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 11 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.8% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +21.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +33.9% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Brock Bowers

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 58.5
fanduel -114
Projection 40.0
Proj. gap -18.5
Model win 82.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +32.3%
Model-implied EV +54.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 40.0 is 18.5 below the 58.5 line.
Model win probability 82.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.3% model win, +32.3% no-vig edge, and +54.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -158
Projection 3.0
Proj. gap -1.5
Model win 82.3%
No-vig market 57.2%
No-vig edge +25.1%
Model-implied EV +34.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.0 is 1.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 82.3% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.3% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +34.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Brock Bowers

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -140
Projection 4.5
Proj. gap -1.0
Model win 77.6%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +23.0%
Model-implied EV +33.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 1.0 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 77.6% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.6% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +33.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 7.5
fanduel -140
Projection 6.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +20.7%
Model-implied EV +29.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.7 is 0.8 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +20.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +20.7% no-vig edge, and +29.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection 62.0
Proj. gap +28.5
Model win 74.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.0%
Model-implied EV +38.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 62.0 is 28.5 above the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +38.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#6 MODEL PLAY

Tre Tucker

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection 52.8
Proj. gap +26.3
Model win 72.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.8%
Model-implied EV +36.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.8 is 26.3 above the 26.5 line.
Model win probability 72.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.8% model win, +22.8% no-vig edge, and +36.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection 20.4
Proj. gap -5.1
Model win 71.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.4%
Model-implied EV +33.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 20.4 is 5.1 below the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 71.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.4% model win, +21.4% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

Cooper Kupp

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection 44.5
Proj. gap +24.0
Model win 69.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.4%
Model-implied EV +30.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 44.5 is 24.0 above the 20.5 line.
Model win probability 69.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.4% model win, +19.4% no-vig edge, and +30.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#9 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 89.5
fanduel -114
Projection 87.1
Proj. gap -2.4
Model win 69.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.1%
Model-implied EV +29.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 87.1 is 2.4 below the 89.5 line.
Model win probability 69.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.1% model win, +19.1% no-vig edge, and +29.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#10 MODEL PLAY

Zach Charbonnet

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.6
Proj. gap -1.9
Model win 64.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +14.9%
Model-implied EV +21.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.6 is 1.9 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 64.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.9% model win, +14.9% no-vig edge, and +21.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#11 MODEL PLAY

Tre Tucker

Receptions
Pending
OVER 2.5
fanduel +110
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap +1.5
Model win 62.0%
No-vig market 44.5%
No-vig edge +17.5%
Model-implied EV +30.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 1.5 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 62.0% vs 44.5% no-vig market probability creates a +17.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.0% model win, +17.5% no-vig edge, and +30.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -140
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.3%
No-vig market54.6%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-22.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection29.4
Proj. gap+6.9
Model win42.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.7%
Model-implied EV-20.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +118
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.4%
No-vig market42.8%
No-vig edge+10.6%
Model-implied EV+16.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Mayer

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -122
Projection3.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win46.9%
No-vig market51.6%
No-vig edge-4.7%
Model-implied EV-14.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Michael Mayer

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection30.6
Proj. gap+10.1
Model win47.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.4%
Model-implied EV-10.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Zach Charbonnet

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -174
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win54.3%
No-vig market59.4%
No-vig edge-5.1%
Model-implied EV-14.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Zach Charbonnet

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection15.8
Proj. gap+6.3
Model win41.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.2%
Model-implied EV-21.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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