WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 7:20 PM CST

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

8 qualified model plays · 12 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 8 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 70.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +20.4% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +32.2% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Tee Higgins

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -110
Projection 4.4
Proj. gap -1.1
Model win 78.9%
No-vig market 49.0%
No-vig edge +29.9%
Model-implied EV +50.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.4 is 1.1 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 78.9% vs 49.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.9% model win, +29.9% no-vig edge, and +50.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Tee Higgins

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection 65.5
Proj. gap -11.0
Model win 76.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.5%
Model-implied EV +43.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 65.5 is 11.0 below the 76.5 line.
Model win probability 76.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.5% model win, +26.5% no-vig edge, and +43.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Ja'Marr Chase

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 7.5
fanduel +104
Projection 6.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 76.2%
No-vig market 45.8%
No-vig edge +30.4%
Model-implied EV +55.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.7 is 0.8 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 76.2% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +30.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.2% model win, +30.4% no-vig edge, and +55.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Ja'Marr Chase

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 91.5
fanduel -114
Projection 85.4
Proj. gap -6.1
Model win 72.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.6%
Model-implied EV +36.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 85.4 is 6.1 below the 91.5 line.
Model win probability 72.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.6% model win, +22.6% no-vig edge, and +36.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Chase Brown

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -140
Projection 4.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 70.0%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +15.4%
Model-implied EV +19.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 70.0% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +15.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.0% model win, +15.4% no-vig edge, and +19.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

Joe Burrow

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 289.5
fanduel -114
Projection 253.4
Proj. gap -36.1
Model win 68.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.6%
Model-implied EV +28.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 253.4 is 36.1 below the 289.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +28.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#7 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing TDs
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -128
Projection 1.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 62.0%
No-vig market 52.4%
No-vig edge +9.6%
Model-implied EV +10.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 62.0% vs 52.4% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 62.0% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +10.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#8 MODEL PLAY

Chase Brown

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 43.5
fanduel -114
Projection 61.8
Proj. gap +18.3
Model win 60.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.1%
Model-implied EV +12.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 61.8 is 18.3 above the 43.5 line.
Model win probability 60.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.1% model win, +10.1% no-vig edge, and +12.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 240.5
fanduel -114
Projection233.8
Proj. gap-6.7
Model win54.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chase Brown

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 23.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.2
Proj. gap+4.7
Model win39.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.5%
Model-implied EV-25.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DK Metcalf

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 4.5
fanduel -160
Projection4.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win64.6%
No-vig market57.5%
No-vig edge+7.1%
Model-implied EV+4.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DK Metcalf

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection65.9
Proj. gap+16.4
Model win57.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.4%
Model-implied EV+7.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darnell Washington

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -102
Projection3.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.7%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+1.5%
Model-implied EV-3.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darnell Washington

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection33.2
Proj. gap+4.7
Model win39.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.5%
Model-implied EV-25.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaylen Warren

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection63.2
Proj. gap+1.7
Model win39.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.4%
Model-implied EV-25.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Joe Burrow

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 2.5
fanduel -210
Projection2.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win55.0%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge-8.2%
Model-implied EV-18.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection47.4
Proj. gap+15.9
Model win56.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+6.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +122
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.1%
No-vig market42.1%
No-vig edge-5.0%
Model-implied EV-17.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 13.5
fanduel -114
Projection15.2
Proj. gap+1.7
Model win35.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-14.5%
Model-implied EV-33.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Samaje Perine

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection35.2
Proj. gap+12.7
Model win52.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
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