WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 8:30 AM CST

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions

8 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 8 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.0% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +16.4% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +23.1% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 97.5
fanduel -114
Projection 62.4
Proj. gap -35.1
Model win 88.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +38.2%
Model-implied EV +65.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 62.4 is 35.1 below the 97.5 line.
Model win probability 88.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 88.2% model win, +38.2% no-vig edge, and +65.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#2 MODEL PLAY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 7.5
fanduel -136
Projection 6.9
Proj. gap -0.6
Model win 73.1%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +19.3%
Model-implied EV +26.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.9 is 0.6 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 73.1% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +19.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.1% model win, +19.3% no-vig edge, and +26.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Sam LaPorta

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -166
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 72.1%
No-vig market 58.3%
No-vig edge +13.8%
Model-implied EV +15.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 58.3% no-vig market probability creates a +13.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +13.8% no-vig edge, and +15.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -138
Projection 4.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 70.1%
No-vig market 54.2%
No-vig edge +15.9%
Model-implied EV +20.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +15.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +15.9% no-vig edge, and +20.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Drake Maye

Passing TDs
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel -138
Projection 2.1
Proj. gap +0.6
Model win 65.9%
No-vig market 54.2%
No-vig edge +11.7%
Model-implied EV +13.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 65.9% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +11.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.9% model win, +11.7% no-vig edge, and +13.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#6 MODEL PLAY

Drake Maye

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 262.5
fanduel -114
Projection 239.5
Proj. gap -23.0
Model win 61.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.6%
Model-implied EV +15.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 239.5 is 23.0 below the 262.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#7 MODEL PLAY

Jared Goff

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 268.5
fanduel -114
Projection 246.6
Proj. gap -21.9
Model win 61.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.2%
Model-implied EV +15.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 246.6 is 21.9 below the 268.5 line.
Model win probability 61.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.2% model win, +11.2% no-vig edge, and +15.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#8 MODEL PLAY

Isaac TeSlaa

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection 36.0
Proj. gap +17.5
Model win 59.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.5%
Model-implied EV +11.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 36.0 is 17.5 above the 18.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +9.5% no-vig edge, and +11.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 78.5
fanduel -114
Projection83.2
Proj. gap+4.7
Model win39.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.4%
Model-implied EV-25.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Drake Maye

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.0
Proj. gap+1.5
Model win39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-26.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Isaac TeSlaa

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -106
Projection2.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win57.0%
No-vig market48.1%
No-vig edge+8.9%
Model-implied EV+10.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jahmyr Gibbs

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection32.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win34.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-15.4%
Model-implied EV-35.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jameson Williams

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -138
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win57.0%
No-vig market54.2%
No-vig edge+2.8%
Model-implied EV-1.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jameson Williams

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 56.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.4
Proj. gap+11.9
Model win50.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.4%
Model-implied EV-5.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jared Goff

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -210
Projection1.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win58.9%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge-4.3%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam LaPorta

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 43.5
fanduel -114
Projection48.3
Proj. gap+4.8
Model win39.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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