WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

7 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 7 pending
← Back to Week 10
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 7 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.1% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +18.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +28.3% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection 46.5
Proj. gap -16.0
Model win 80.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.1%
Model-implied EV +50.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 46.5 is 16.0 below the 62.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +30.1% no-vig edge, and +50.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.3%
Model-implied EV +41.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +25.3% no-vig edge, and +41.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Geno Smith

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 220.5
fanduel -114
Projection 171.2
Proj. gap -49.3
Model win 75.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.2%
Model-implied EV +41.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 171.2 is 49.3 below the 220.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#4 MODEL PLAY

James Cook

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 91.5
fanduel -114
Projection 85.3
Proj. gap -6.2
Model win 69.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.8%
Model-implied EV +31.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 85.3 is 6.2 below the 91.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +19.8% no-vig edge, and +31.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#5 MODEL PLAY

Keon Coleman

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection 49.0
Proj. gap +20.5
Model win 63.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.4%
Model-implied EV +19.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 49.0 is 20.5 above the 28.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

Khalil Shakir

Receptions
Pending
OVER 3.5
fanduel -138
Projection 4.9
Proj. gap +1.4
Model win 61.0%
No-vig market 54.2%
No-vig edge +6.8%
Model-implied EV +5.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.9 is 1.4 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 61.0% vs 54.2% no-vig market probability creates a +6.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 61.0% model win, +6.8% no-vig edge, and +5.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Josh Allen

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 235.5
fanduel -114
Projection 220.9
Proj. gap -14.6
Model win 58.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.5%
Model-implied EV +9.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 220.9 is 14.6 below the 235.5 line.
Model win probability 58.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.5% model win, +8.5% no-vig edge, and +9.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Breece Hall

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 52.5
fanduel -114
Projection57.6
Proj. gap+5.1
Model win43.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.0%
Model-implied EV-19.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DJ Moore

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection3.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.8%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge-5.4%
Model-implied EV-17.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DJ Moore

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.2
Proj. gap+10.7
Model win48.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-8.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Geno Smith

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -235
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.6%
No-vig market65.6%
No-vig edge-9.0%
Model-implied EV-19.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Josh Allen

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.4%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+28.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Josh Allen

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection39.1
Proj. gap+11.6
Model win51.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Keon Coleman

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +108
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win57.2%
No-vig market44.9%
No-vig edge+12.3%
Model-implied EV+19.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Khalil Shakir

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.4
Proj. gap+12.9
Model win51.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-3.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →