WEEK 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 11:00 AM CST

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

14 qualified model plays · 9 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 14 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 14 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +21.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +34.8% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Chuba Hubbard

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 69.5
fanduel -114
Projection 32.6
Proj. gap -36.9
Model win 88.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +38.6%
Model-implied EV +66.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 32.6 is 36.9 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 88.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 88.6% model win, +38.6% no-vig edge, and +66.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#2 MODEL PLAY

Tetairoa McMillan

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -130
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap -1.5
Model win 82.3%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +29.4%
Model-implied EV +45.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 1.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 82.3% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +29.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.3% model win, +29.4% no-vig edge, and +45.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Troy Franklin

Receptions
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel +148
Projection 3.9
Proj. gap +2.4
Model win 79.2%
No-vig market 37.7%
No-vig edge +41.5%
Model-implied EV +96.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.9 is 2.4 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 79.2% vs 37.7% no-vig market probability creates a +41.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.2% model win, +41.5% no-vig edge, and +96.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Bryce Young

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 236.5
fanduel -114
Projection 176.8
Proj. gap -59.7
Model win 78.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +28.3%
Model-implied EV +47.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 176.8 is 59.7 below the 236.5 line.
Model win probability 78.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 78.3% model win, +28.3% no-vig edge, and +47.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#5 MODEL PLAY

Troy Franklin

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection 38.8
Proj. gap +29.3
Model win 77.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +27.1%
Model-implied EV +44.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.8 is 29.3 above the 9.5 line.
Model win probability 77.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.1% model win, +27.1% no-vig edge, and +44.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -158
Projection 3.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.5%
No-vig market 57.2%
No-vig edge +18.3%
Model-implied EV +23.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.5% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +18.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.5% model win, +18.3% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Tetairoa McMillan

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection 57.2
Proj. gap -8.3
Model win 74.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.1%
Model-implied EV +39.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.2 is 8.3 below the 65.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +39.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Coker

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 69.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.5%
Model-implied EV +30.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +19.5% no-vig edge, and +30.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#9 MODEL PLAY

Darren Waller

Receptions
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel -152
Projection 3.3
Proj. gap +1.8
Model win 69.0%
No-vig market 56.3%
No-vig edge +12.7%
Model-implied EV +14.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 1.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 69.0% vs 56.3% no-vig market probability creates a +12.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.0% model win, +12.7% no-vig edge, and +14.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#10 MODEL PLAY

Marvin Mims Jr.

Receptions
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel -168
Projection 3.3
Proj. gap +1.8
Model win 69.0%
No-vig market 58.6%
No-vig edge +10.4%
Model-implied EV +10.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 1.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 69.0% vs 58.6% no-vig market probability creates a +10.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.0% model win, +10.4% no-vig edge, and +10.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#11 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 43.5
fanduel -114
Projection 43.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 66.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.9%
Model-implied EV +25.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 43.2 is 0.3 below the 43.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#12 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Coker

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 50.5
fanduel -114
Projection 50.5
Proj. gap -0.0
Model win 66.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.8%
Model-implied EV +25.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 50.5 is 0.0 below the 50.5 line.
Model win probability 66.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.8% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +25.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#13 MODEL PLAY

Bo Nix

Passing TDs
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection 1.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 61.6%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +7.8%
Model-implied EV +6.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +7.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +7.8% no-vig edge, and +6.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#14 MODEL PLAY

Courtland Sutton

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection 53.4
Proj. gap +17.9
Model win 59.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.8%
Model-implied EV +12.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.4 is 17.9 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 59.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.8% model win, +9.8% no-vig edge, and +12.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bo Nix

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 210.5
fanduel -114
Projection207.8
Proj. gap-2.7
Model win51.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.9%
Model-implied EV-2.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bo Nix

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 14.5
fanduel -114
Projection25.6
Proj. gap+11.1
Model win50.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.3%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bryce Young

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +104
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.4%
No-vig market45.8%
No-vig edge+4.6%
Model-implied EV+2.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bryce Young

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -114
Projection19.0
Proj. gap+12.5
Model win52.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.4%
Model-implied EV-1.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Courtland Sutton

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win54.5%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+7.4%
Model-implied EV+8.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darren Waller

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection33.7
Proj. gap+15.2
Model win55.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.6%
Model-implied EV+4.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Evan Engram

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +148
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.7%
No-vig market37.7%
No-vig edge+8.0%
Model-implied EV+13.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Evan Engram

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection33.7
Proj. gap+15.2
Model win55.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.9%
Model-implied EV+5.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Marvin Mims Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 15.5
fanduel -114
Projection26.2
Proj. gap+10.7
Model win48.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.2%
Model-implied EV-8.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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