WEEK 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
11 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 9-2-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 86.5
fanduel -114
Projection
53.2
Proj. gap
-33.3
Model win
87.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+37.2%
Model-implied EV
+63.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 53.2 is 33.3 below the 86.5 line.
Model win probability 87.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +37.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 87.2% model win, +37.2% no-vig edge, and +63.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 153 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection
52.7
Proj. gap
-23.8
Model win
85.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+35.8%
Model-implied EV
+61.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.7 is 23.8 below the 76.5 line.
Model win probability 85.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.8% model win, +35.8% no-vig edge, and +61.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 33 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -102
Projection
3.4
Proj. gap
-1.1
Model win
79.1%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+31.9%
Model-implied EV
+56.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.4 is 1.1 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +31.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +31.9% no-vig edge, and +56.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +112
Projection
4.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
77.2%
No-vig market
44.1%
No-vig edge
+33.0%
Model-implied EV
+63.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.6 is 0.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 77.2% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +33.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.2% model win, +33.0% no-vig edge, and +63.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -118
Projection
3.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
74.8%
No-vig market
50.6%
No-vig edge
+24.2%
Model-implied EV
+38.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 74.8% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.8% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +38.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
WIN
UNDER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection
41.2
Proj. gap
-8.3
Model win
74.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+24.2%
Model-implied EV
+39.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 41.2 is 8.3 below the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 74.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.2% model win, +24.2% no-vig edge, and +39.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 33 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection
4.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
72.4%
No-vig market
53.8%
No-vig edge
+18.6%
Model-implied EV
+25.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 72.4% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.4% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection
34.9
Proj. gap
-3.6
Model win
70.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.1%
Model-implied EV
+31.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 34.9 is 3.6 below the 38.5 line.
Model win probability 70.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.1% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +31.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 58 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection
31.9
Proj. gap
-1.6
Model win
68.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.3%
Model-implied EV
+28.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 31.9 is 1.6 below the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 68.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.3% model win, +18.3% no-vig edge, and +28.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 15 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 263.5
fanduel -114
Projection
231.2
Proj. gap
-32.3
Model win
65.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+15.7%
Model-implied EV
+23.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 231.2 is 32.3 below the 263.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 176 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 221.5
fanduel -114
Projection
190.3
Proj. gap
-31.2
Model win
65.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+15.3%
Model-implied EV
+22.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 190.3 is 31.2 below the 221.5 line.
Model win probability 65.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.3% model win, +15.3% no-vig edge, and +22.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 210 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -132
Projection6.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.8%
No-vig market53.2%
No-vig edge-13.4%
Model-implied EV-30.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 75.5
fanduel -114
Projection75.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win33.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-16.7%
Model-implied EV-37.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +102
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win54.2%
No-vig market46.2%
No-vig edge+8.0%
Model-implied EV+9.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection61.0
Proj. gap+9.5
Model win46.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-12.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -130
Projection1.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win57.0%
No-vig market52.8%
No-vig edge+4.2%
Model-implied EV+0.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -174
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win60.1%
No-vig market59.4%
No-vig edge+0.7%
Model-implied EV-5.4%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516