WEEK 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
6 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-3-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -148
Projection
5.3
Proj. gap
-1.2
Model win
79.2%
No-vig market
56.1%
No-vig edge
+23.1%
Model-implied EV
+32.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.3 is 1.2 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 79.2% vs 56.1% no-vig market probability creates a +23.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.2% model win, +23.1% no-vig edge, and +32.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -144
Projection
3.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
75.3%
No-vig market
55.1%
No-vig edge
+20.1%
Model-implied EV
+27.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.3% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +20.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.3% model win, +20.1% no-vig edge, and +27.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 264.5
fanduel -114
Projection
214.2
Proj. gap
-50.3
Model win
75.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+25.2%
Model-implied EV
+41.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 214.2 is 50.3 below the 264.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 276 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 78.5
fanduel -114
Projection
70.7
Proj. gap
-7.8
Model win
73.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+23.9%
Model-implied EV
+38.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 70.7 is 7.8 below the 78.5 line.
Model win probability 73.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.9% model win, +23.9% no-vig edge, and +38.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 70 receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 277.5
fanduel -114
Projection
237.9
Proj. gap
-39.6
Model win
70.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.5%
Model-implied EV
+32.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 237.9 is 39.6 below the 277.5 line.
Model win probability 70.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 70.5% model win, +20.5% no-vig edge, and +32.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 258 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -102
Projection
4.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
67.8%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+20.6%
Model-implied EV
+34.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.3 is 0.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +34.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 66.5
fanduel -114
Projection70.4
Proj. gap+3.9
Model win38.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-11.4%
Model-implied EV-27.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.4%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+15.7%
Model-implied EV+28.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -146
Projection5.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win44.6%
No-vig market55.5%
No-vig edge-10.9%
Model-implied EV-24.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 67.5
fanduel -114
Projection73.2
Proj. gap+5.7
Model win40.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.2%
Model-implied EV-23.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 70.5
fanduel -114
Projection83.7
Proj. gap+13.2
Model win53.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.5%
Model-implied EV+0.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -174
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.2%
No-vig market59.4%
No-vig edge-9.2%
Model-implied EV-21.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 46.5
fanduel -114
Projection54.9
Proj. gap+8.4
Model win45.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.0%
Model-implied EV-15.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154