WEEK 5 · Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CDT
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
9 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection
46.6
Proj. gap
-15.9
Model win
80.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+30.1%
Model-implied EV
+50.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 46.6 is 15.9 below the 62.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +30.1% no-vig edge, and +50.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 51 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -144
Projection
4.1
Proj. gap
-0.4
Model win
70.8%
No-vig market
55.1%
No-vig edge
+15.7%
Model-implied EV
+20.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.1 is 0.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 70.8% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.8% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +20.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 19.5
fanduel -114
Projection
18.4
Proj. gap
-1.1
Model win
67.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.8%
Model-implied EV
+27.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 18.4 is 1.1 below the 19.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 27 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection
54.0
Proj. gap
+22.5
Model win
67.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.0%
Model-implied EV
+25.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.0 is 22.5 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 67.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.0% model win, +17.0% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 19 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 245.5
fanduel -114
Projection
212.4
Proj. gap
-33.1
Model win
66.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.1%
Model-implied EV
+24.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 212.4 is 33.1 below the 245.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 210 passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 2.5
fanduel +128
Projection
2.4
Proj. gap
-0.1
Model win
64.6%
No-vig market
41.0%
No-vig edge
+23.6%
Model-implied EV
+47.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.4 is 0.1 below the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 41.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +47.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 280.5
fanduel -114
Projection
254.6
Proj. gap
-25.9
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 254.6 is 25.9 below the 280.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 383 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 69.5
fanduel -114
Projection
69.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
62.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.8%
Model-implied EV
+17.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.3 is 0.2 below the 69.5 line.
Model win probability 62.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.8% model win, +12.8% no-vig edge, and +17.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 49 rushing yards
WIN
OVER 2.5
fanduel +148
Projection
2.8
Proj. gap
+0.3
Model win
58.9%
No-vig market
37.7%
No-vig edge
+21.2%
Model-implied EV
+46.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 0.3 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 58.9% vs 37.7% no-vig market probability creates a +21.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.9% model win, +21.2% no-vig edge, and +46.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 3 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 75.5
fanduel -114
Projection89.6
Proj. gap+14.1
Model win54.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.6%
Model-implied EV+2.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -118
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.2%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge+5.6%
Model-implied EV+3.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 36.5
fanduel -114
Projection37.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win39.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.8%
Model-implied EV-26.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796