WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 3:25 PM CDT

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks

8 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 67.9% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +17.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +26.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Quentin Johnston

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection 66.8
Proj. gap +31.3
Model win 79.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +29.6%
Model-implied EV +49.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 66.8 is 31.3 above the 35.5 line.
Model win probability 79.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.6% model win, +29.6% no-vig edge, and +49.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 44 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

AJ Barner

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -160
Projection 2.9
Proj. gap -0.6
Model win 72.7%
No-vig market 57.5%
No-vig edge +15.1%
Model-implied EV +18.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 57.5% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +18.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
#3 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 90.5
fanduel -114
Projection 88.6
Proj. gap -1.9
Model win 68.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.7%
Model-implied EV +28.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 88.6 is 1.9 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 68.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.7% model win, +18.7% no-vig edge, and +28.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 76 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

AJ Barner

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 30.1
Proj. gap -1.4
Model win 68.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.2%
Model-implied EV +28.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 30.1 is 1.4 below the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 12 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Emanuel Wilson

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection 39.2
Proj. gap -3.3
Model win 66.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.2%
Model-implied EV +24.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 39.2 is 3.3 below the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 66.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.2% model win, +16.2% no-vig edge, and +24.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 81 rushing yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 6.5
fanduel +104
Projection 6.4
Proj. gap -0.1
Model win 65.6%
No-vig market 45.8%
No-vig edge +19.8%
Model-implied EV +33.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.4 is 0.1 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 65.6% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +19.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.6% model win, +19.8% no-vig edge, and +33.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#7 MODEL PLAY

Cooper Kupp

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection 45.9
Proj. gap +20.4
Model win 63.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.3%
Model-implied EV +18.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 45.9 is 20.4 above the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 63.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.3% model win, +13.3% no-vig edge, and +18.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 13 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Justin Herbert

Passing yards
LOSS
OVER 198.5
fanduel -114
Projection 224.0
Proj. gap +25.5
Model win 59.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.1%
Model-implied EV +11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 224.0 is 25.5 above the 198.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 189 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +110
Projection3.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.5%
No-vig market44.5%
No-vig edge+3.0%
Model-implied EV-0.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Justin Herbert

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -240
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win72.7%
No-vig market65.9%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+3.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ladd McConkey

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -166
Projection3.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.4%
No-vig market58.3%
No-vig edge-14.9%
Model-implied EV-30.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ladd McConkey

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 45.5
fanduel -114
Projection53.4
Proj. gap+7.9
Model win44.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-16.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Omarion Hampton

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 47.5
fanduel -114
Projection53.7
Proj. gap+6.2
Model win44.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.0%
Model-implied EV-17.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quentin Johnston

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -172
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+1.7
Model win66.3%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge+7.3%
Model-implied EV+4.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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