WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
8 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -200
Projection
2.6
Proj. gap
+1.1
Model win
77.5%
No-vig market
62.3%
No-vig edge
+15.2%
Model-implied EV
+16.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.6 is 1.1 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 62.3% no-vig market probability creates a +15.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +15.2% no-vig edge, and +16.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -140
Projection
4.6
Proj. gap
-0.9
Model win
77.5%
No-vig market
54.6%
No-vig edge
+22.9%
Model-implied EV
+32.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.6 is 0.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +32.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
LOSS
UNDER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.8
Proj. gap
-1.7
Model win
68.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.5%
Model-implied EV
+28.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.8 is 1.7 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +28.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 157 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection
2.3
Proj. gap
+0.8
Model win
68.0%
No-vig market
53.8%
No-vig edge
+14.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.3 is 0.8 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +14.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +14.2% no-vig edge, and +18.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -140
Projection
4.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
68.0%
No-vig market
54.6%
No-vig edge
+13.4%
Model-implied EV
+16.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.0% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.0% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +16.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 11 receptions
WIN
UNDER 66.5
fanduel -114
Projection
63.7
Proj. gap
-2.8
Model win
65.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+15.7%
Model-implied EV
+23.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 63.7 is 2.8 below the 66.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 10 rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 267.5
fanduel -114
Projection
241.2
Proj. gap
-26.3
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 241.2 is 26.3 below the 267.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 428 passing yards
WIN
UNDER 265.5
fanduel -114
Projection
246.4
Proj. gap
-19.1
Model win
60.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.5%
Model-implied EV
+13.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 246.4 is 19.1 below the 265.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 227 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -132
Projection6.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.2%
No-vig market53.2%
No-vig edge-15.0%
Model-implied EV-32.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 78.5
fanduel -114
Projection79.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win34.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-15.6%
Model-implied EV-35.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -148
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.1%
No-vig market55.9%
No-vig edge+0.2%
Model-implied EV-6.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection53.2
Proj. gap+12.7
Model win51.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.4%
Model-implied EV-3.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 72.5
fanduel -114
Projection77.2
Proj. gap+4.7
Model win39.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.4%
Model-implied EV-25.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154