WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
5 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-2-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection
77.7
Proj. gap
+43.2
Model win
91.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+41.5%
Model-implied EV
+71.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 77.7 is 43.2 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 91.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.5% model win, +41.5% no-vig edge, and +71.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 33 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection
68.7
Proj. gap
+26.2
Model win
72.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+22.7%
Model-implied EV
+36.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 68.7 is 26.2 above the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 77 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 3.5
fanduel -174
Projection
5.4
Proj. gap
+1.9
Model win
71.8%
No-vig market
59.4%
No-vig edge
+12.4%
Model-implied EV
+13.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.4 is 1.9 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 71.8% vs 59.4% no-vig market probability creates a +12.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.8% model win, +12.4% no-vig edge, and +13.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 90.5
fanduel -114
Projection
86.7
Proj. gap
-3.8
Model win
70.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.2%
Model-implied EV
+31.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 86.7 is 3.8 below the 90.5 line.
Model win probability 70.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.2% model win, +20.2% no-vig edge, and +31.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 128 receiving yards
WIN
OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection
44.1
Proj. gap
+22.6
Model win
66.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.9%
Model-implied EV
+25.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 44.1 is 22.6 above the 21.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +16.9% no-vig edge, and +25.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 46 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -128
Projection2.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.9%
No-vig market52.4%
No-vig edge-8.5%
Model-implied EV-21.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection31.0
Proj. gap+9.5
Model win46.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.6%
Model-implied EV-12.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +124
Projection3.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.6%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+9.9%
Model-implied EV+15.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 39.5
fanduel -114
Projection51.0
Proj. gap+11.5
Model win50.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.8%
Model-implied EV-4.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -112
Projection6.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win38.2%
No-vig market49.4%
No-vig edge-11.2%
Model-implied EV-27.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -210
Projection0.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win56.0%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge-7.2%
Model-implied EV-17.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 172.5
fanduel -114
Projection176.5
Proj. gap+4.0
Model win51.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.4%
Model-implied EV-3.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +100
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win52.5%
No-vig market46.8%
No-vig edge+5.7%
Model-implied EV+5.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154