WEEK 3 · Mon, Sep 28, 7:15 PM CDT

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

8 qualified model plays · 13 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-2-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 71.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +21.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +34.9% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Tank Bigsby

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 12.5
fanduel -113
Projection 54.0
Proj. gap +41.5
Model win 88.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +38.2%
Model-implied EV +66.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.0 is 41.5 above the 12.5 line.
Model win probability 88.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 88.2% model win, +38.2% no-vig edge, and +66.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 0 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Luther Burden III

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 37.5
fanduel -106
Projection 67.6
Proj. gap +30.1
Model win 78.0%
No-vig market 48.5%
No-vig edge +29.5%
Model-implied EV +51.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 67.6 is 30.1 above the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 78.0% vs 48.5% no-vig market probability creates a +29.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.0% model win, +29.5% no-vig edge, and +51.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 61 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

DeVonta Smith

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -114
Projection 4.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 76.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.3%
Model-implied EV +43.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 0.8 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 76.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.3% model win, +26.3% no-vig edge, and +43.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

DeVonta Smith

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 70.5
fanduel -113
Projection 62.2
Proj. gap -8.3
Model win 74.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.1%
Model-implied EV +39.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 62.2 is 8.3 below the 70.5 line.
Model win probability 74.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.1% model win, +24.1% no-vig edge, and +39.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 65 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Rome Odunze

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 25.5
fanduel -113
Projection 50.9
Proj. gap +25.4
Model win 71.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.7%
Model-implied EV +35.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 50.9 is 25.4 above the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 71.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.7% model win, +21.7% no-vig edge, and +35.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 44 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Kalif Raymond

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 23.5
fanduel -113
Projection 43.3
Proj. gap +19.8
Model win 62.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +12.3%
Model-implied EV +17.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 43.3 is 19.8 above the 23.5 line.
Model win probability 62.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.3% model win, +12.3% no-vig edge, and +17.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 90 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Saquon Barkley

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 72.5
fanduel -113
Projection 91.1
Proj. gap +18.6
Model win 60.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.7%
Model-implied EV +14.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 91.1 is 18.6 above the 72.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +14.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 82 rushing yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Hurts

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 218.5
fanduel -113
Projection 202.4
Proj. gap -16.1
Model win 59.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.1%
Model-implied EV +11.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 202.4 is 16.1 below the 218.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 153 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cole Kmet

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection2.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.2%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+8.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cole Kmet

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 8.5
fanduel -113
Projection19.7
Proj. gap+11.2
Model win49.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Colston Loveland

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +118
Projection4.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.0%
No-vig market42.8%
No-vig edge+8.1%
Model-implied EV+11.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Colston Loveland

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 31.5
fanduel -113
Projection45.9
Proj. gap+14.4
Model win54.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+2.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

D'Andre Swift

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 60.5
fanduel -113
Projection62.4
Proj. gap+1.9
Model win40.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.8%
Model-implied EV-24.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jalen Hurts

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +130
Projection1.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win52.7%
No-vig market40.8%
No-vig edge+11.9%
Model-implied EV+21.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jalen Hurts

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 24.5
fanduel -113
Projection26.1
Proj. gap+1.6
Model win39.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.7%
Model-implied EV-25.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kalif Raymond

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -114
Projection2.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.0%
Model-implied EV-23.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kyle Monangai

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 38.5
fanduel -113
Projection47.3
Proj. gap+8.8
Model win47.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.9%
Model-implied EV-11.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kyle Monangai

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +116
Projection1.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.6%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-14.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kyle Monangai

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 8.5
fanduel -113
Projection15.9
Proj. gap+7.4
Model win43.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.5%
Model-implied EV-18.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Luther Burden III

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +100
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.6%
No-vig market46.8%
No-vig edge+6.8%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rome Odunze

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +108
Projection3.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.2%
No-vig market44.9%
No-vig edge+5.3%
Model-implied EV+4.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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