WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

7 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 2-5-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 7 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 65.9% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +14.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +21.7% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel +108
Projection 2.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.5%
No-vig market 44.9%
No-vig edge +30.6%
Model-implied EV +57.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.7 is 0.8 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 75.5% vs 44.9% no-vig market probability creates a +30.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.5% model win, +30.6% no-vig edge, and +57.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

Chris Olave

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -148
Projection 6.3
Proj. gap -0.2
Model win 66.3%
No-vig market 55.9%
No-vig edge +10.5%
Model-implied EV +11.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.3 is 0.2 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 66.3% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.3% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +11.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
#3 MODEL PLAY

Ashton Jeanty

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection 65.1
Proj. gap -3.4
Model win 66.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.2%
Model-implied EV +24.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 65.1 is 3.4 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 66.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.2% model win, +16.2% no-vig edge, and +24.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 56 rushing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Tre Tucker

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection 3.4
Proj. gap -0.1
Model win 66.0%
No-vig market 51.4%
No-vig edge +14.6%
Model-implied EV +20.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.4 is 0.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.0% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.0% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +20.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Shough

Passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -144
Projection 1.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 64.7%
No-vig market 55.1%
No-vig edge +9.6%
Model-implied EV +9.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.0 is 0.5 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +9.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
#6 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Shough

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 252.5
fanduel -114
Projection 225.6
Proj. gap -26.9
Model win 63.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.4%
Model-implied EV +19.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 225.6 is 26.9 below the 252.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 255 passing yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Kirk Cousins

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 211.5
fanduel -114
Projection 195.7
Proj. gap -15.8
Model win 59.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.1%
Model-implied EV +11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 195.7 is 15.8 below the 211.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 248 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ashton Jeanty

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection22.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win33.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-16.1%
Model-implied EV-36.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chris Olave

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 79.5
fanduel -114
Projection84.5
Proj. gap+5.0
Model win39.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.1%
Model-implied EV-25.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Devaughn Vele

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 4.5
fanduel -166
Projection4.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win64.0%
No-vig market58.3%
No-vig edge+5.7%
Model-implied EV+2.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Devaughn Vele

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection57.1
Proj. gap+8.6
Model win45.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Juwan Johnson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.9%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-3.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Juwan Johnson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection51.4
Proj. gap+15.9
Model win57.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.1%
Model-implied EV+7.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kirk Cousins

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -192
Projection1.3
Proj. gap-0.2
Model win57.9%
No-vig market61.4%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-11.9%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tre Tucker

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection42.4
Proj. gap+1.9
Model win36.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-14.0%
Model-implied EV-32.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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