WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:00 PM CDT

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins

11 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 6-5-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 11 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 70.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +21.6% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +36.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Travis Kelce

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection 33.6
Proj. gap -17.9
Model win 81.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +31.6%
Model-implied EV +53.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 33.6 is 17.9 below the 51.5 line.
Model win probability 81.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +31.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.6% model win, +31.6% no-vig edge, and +53.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 59 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Kenneth Walker III

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 85.5
fanduel -114
Projection 69.7
Proj. gap -15.8
Model win 77.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +27.4%
Model-implied EV +45.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.7 is 15.8 below the 85.5 line.
Model win probability 77.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 77.4% model win, +27.4% no-vig edge, and +45.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 70 rushing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Kenneth Walker III

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -160
Projection 2.6
Proj. gap -0.9
Model win 77.1%
No-vig market 57.5%
No-vig edge +19.6%
Model-implied EV +25.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.6 is 0.9 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 77.1% vs 57.5% no-vig market probability creates a +19.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.1% model win, +19.6% no-vig edge, and +25.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Travis Kelce

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection 3.6
Proj. gap -0.9
Model win 76.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.6%
Model-implied EV +43.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 0.9 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 76.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.6% model win, +26.6% no-vig edge, and +43.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Malik Willis

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 177.5
fanduel -114
Projection 134.8
Proj. gap -42.7
Model win 72.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.9%
Model-implied EV +36.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 134.8 is 42.7 below the 177.5 line.
Model win probability 72.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 72.9% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +36.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 210 passing yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Rashee Rice

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection 72.6
Proj. gap +24.1
Model win 69.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.4%
Model-implied EV +30.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 72.6 is 24.1 above the 48.5 line.
Model win probability 69.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.4% model win, +19.4% no-vig edge, and +30.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 88 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Rashee Rice

Receptions
WIN
OVER 4.5
fanduel +118
Projection 6.3
Proj. gap +1.8
Model win 68.3%
No-vig market 42.8%
No-vig edge +25.5%
Model-implied EV +48.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.3 is 1.8 above the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.3% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +25.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.3% model win, +25.5% no-vig edge, and +48.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
#8 MODEL PLAY

Malik Willis

Rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection 30.4
Proj. gap -3.1
Model win 66.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.1%
Model-implied EV +24.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 30.4 is 3.1 below the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 66.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 66.1% model win, +16.1% no-vig edge, and +24.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 56 rushing yards
#9 MODEL PLAY

Xavier Worthy

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -128
Projection 3.4
Proj. gap -0.1
Model win 65.6%
No-vig market 52.4%
No-vig edge +13.1%
Model-implied EV +16.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.4 is 0.1 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 65.6% vs 52.4% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.6% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +16.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#10 MODEL PLAY

De'Von Achane

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 59.5
fanduel -114
Projection 79.3
Proj. gap +19.8
Model win 61.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.7%
Model-implied EV +15.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 79.3 is 19.8 above the 59.5 line.
Model win probability 61.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.7% model win, +11.7% no-vig edge, and +15.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 17 rushing yards
#11 MODEL PLAY

Patrick Mahomes

Passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
fanduel +162
Projection 1.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 59.5%
No-vig market 35.7%
No-vig edge +23.8%
Model-implied EV +55.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.2 is 0.3 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 35.7% no-vig market probability creates a +23.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +23.8% no-vig edge, and +55.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 2 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

De'Von Achane

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection3.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.0%
No-vig market51.6%
No-vig edge-10.6%
Model-implied EV-25.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

De'Von Achane

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection30.0
Proj. gap+3.5
Model win37.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.2%
Model-implied EV-29.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kenneth Walker III

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection23.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win34.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-16.0%
Model-implied EV-36.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Malik Willis

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -210
Projection0.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win55.2%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge-8.0%
Model-implied EV-18.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Patrick Mahomes

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 235.5
fanduel -114
Projection246.1
Proj. gap+10.6
Model win53.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.1%
Model-implied EV-0.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Xavier Worthy

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection50.0
Proj. gap+14.5
Model win54.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+2.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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