WEEK 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 3:25 PM CDT
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
8 qualified model plays · 2 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -104
Projection
5.5
Proj. gap
-1.0
Model win
77.9%
No-vig market
47.6%
No-vig edge
+30.3%
Model-implied EV
+52.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.5 is 1.0 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 77.9% vs 47.6% no-vig market probability creates a +30.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.9% model win, +30.3% no-vig edge, and +52.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
LOSS
OVER 89.5
fanduel -114
Projection
120.1
Proj. gap
+30.6
Model win
76.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+26.4%
Model-implied EV
+43.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 120.1 is 30.6 above the 89.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +43.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 89 rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 82.5
fanduel -114
Projection
78.1
Proj. gap
-4.4
Model win
70.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+20.7%
Model-implied EV
+32.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 78.1 is 4.4 below the 82.5 line.
Model win probability 70.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +20.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 70.7% model win, +20.7% no-vig edge, and +32.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 112 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -148
Projection
5.1
Proj. gap
-0.4
Model win
69.6%
No-vig market
55.9%
No-vig edge
+13.8%
Model-implied EV
+16.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.1 is 0.4 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 69.6% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +13.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.6% model win, +13.8% no-vig edge, and +16.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 7 receptions
WIN
UNDER 236.5
fanduel -114
Projection
204.9
Proj. gap
-31.6
Model win
65.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+15.7%
Model-implied EV
+23.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 204.9 is 31.6 below the 236.5 line.
Model win probability 65.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.7% model win, +15.7% no-vig edge, and +23.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 186 passing yards
WIN
OVER 59.5
fanduel -114
Projection
80.6
Proj. gap
+21.1
Model win
64.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+14.4%
Model-implied EV
+20.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 80.6 is 21.1 above the 59.5 line.
Model win probability 64.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.4% model win, +14.4% no-vig edge, and +20.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 82 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 58.5
fanduel -114
Projection
58.4
Proj. gap
-0.1
Model win
62.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.7%
Model-implied EV
+17.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.4 is 0.1 below the 58.5 line.
Model win probability 62.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 62.7% model win, +12.7% no-vig edge, and +17.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 98 rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel +104
Projection
1.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
57.6%
No-vig market
45.8%
No-vig edge
+11.7%
Model-implied EV
+17.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.6% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +11.7% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.6% model win, +11.7% no-vig edge, and +17.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 263.5
fanduel -114
Projection279.3
Proj. gap+15.8
Model win55.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.2%
Model-implied EV+3.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel +110
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.0%
No-vig market44.5%
No-vig edge+11.5%
Model-implied EV+17.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516