WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
6 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-5-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection
78.3
Proj. gap
+33.8
Model win
82.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+32.8%
Model-implied EV
+55.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 78.3 is 33.8 above the 44.5 line.
Model win probability 82.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +32.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.8% model win, +32.8% no-vig edge, and +55.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 47 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 75.5
fanduel -114
Projection
68.9
Proj. gap
-6.6
Model win
73.0%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+23.0%
Model-implied EV
+37.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 68.9 is 6.6 below the 75.5 line.
Model win probability 73.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.0% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +37.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 153 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +104
Projection
5.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
69.5%
No-vig market
45.8%
No-vig edge
+23.6%
Model-implied EV
+41.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.2 is 0.3 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +41.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 8 receptions
LOSS
OVER 51.5
fanduel -114
Projection
69.1
Proj. gap
+17.6
Model win
59.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.5%
Model-implied EV
+11.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.1 is 17.6 above the 51.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +9.5% no-vig edge, and +11.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 50 receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
fanduel +154
Projection
1.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
57.9%
No-vig market
36.8%
No-vig edge
+21.2%
Model-implied EV
+47.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 36.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +21.2% no-vig edge, and +47.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 262.5
fanduel -114
Projection
249.5
Proj. gap
-13.0
Model win
57.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+7.8%
Model-implied EV
+8.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 249.5 is 13.0 below the 262.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +7.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +7.8% no-vig edge, and +8.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 279 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection4.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win41.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.1%
Model-implied EV-21.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection71.3
Proj. gap+10.8
Model win49.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.9%
Model-implied EV-7.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 56.5
fanduel -114
Projection66.3
Proj. gap+9.8
Model win48.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.0%
Model-implied EV-9.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 72.5
fanduel -114
Projection78.0
Proj. gap+5.5
Model win43.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.7%
Model-implied EV-18.6%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -192
Projection0.9
Proj. gap-0.6
Model win68.0%
No-vig market61.4%
No-vig edge+6.6%
Model-implied EV+3.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 196.5
fanduel -114
Projection191.1
Proj. gap-5.4
Model win53.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.9%
Model-implied EV+1.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -132
Projection5.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win52.7%
No-vig market53.2%
No-vig edge-0.5%
Model-implied EV-7.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -172
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.6%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-15.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154