WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets

5 qualified model plays · 12 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-2-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 5 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 68.1% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +19.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +31.2% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 64.5
fanduel -114
Projection 56.9
Proj. gap -7.6
Model win 73.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +23.8%
Model-implied EV +38.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 56.9 is 7.6 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 73.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.8% model win, +23.8% no-vig edge, and +38.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 57 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel +112
Projection 5.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 71.6%
No-vig market 44.1%
No-vig edge +27.4%
Model-implied EV +51.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.0 is 0.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 71.6% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +27.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.6% model win, +27.4% no-vig edge, and +51.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#3 MODEL PLAY

Jordan Love

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 257.5
fanduel -114
Projection 221.4
Proj. gap -36.1
Model win 68.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.6%
Model-implied EV +28.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 221.4 is 36.1 below the 257.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +28.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 145 passing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Jayden Reed

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 36.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.4
Proj. gap +21.9
Model win 65.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +15.9%
Model-implied EV +23.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.4 is 21.9 above the 36.5 line.
Model win probability 65.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.9% model win, +15.9% no-vig edge, and +23.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Geno Smith

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 207.5
fanduel -114
Projection 188.0
Proj. gap -19.5
Model win 60.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +10.5%
Model-implied EV +13.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 188.0 is 19.5 below the 207.5 line.
Model win probability 60.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 60.5% model win, +10.5% no-vig edge, and +13.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 247 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Adonai Mitchell

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -130
Projection3.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.1%
No-vig market52.8%
No-vig edge-1.7%
Model-implied EV-9.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Adonai Mitchell

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection42.7
Proj. gap+9.2
Model win46.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.8%
Model-implied EV-13.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Breece Hall

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection79.1
Proj. gap+10.6
Model win49.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.9%
Model-implied EV-7.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Christian Watson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +134
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win36.5%
No-vig market39.9%
No-vig edge-3.4%
Model-implied EV-14.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Christian Watson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection72.1
Proj. gap+10.6
Model win48.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Geno Smith

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -235
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win57.0%
No-vig market65.6%
No-vig edge-8.6%
Model-implied EV-18.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jayden Reed

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +102
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win57.0%
No-vig market46.2%
No-vig edge+10.8%
Model-implied EV+15.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jordan Love

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -130
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.2%
No-vig market52.8%
No-vig edge-2.6%
Model-implied EV-11.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Mason Taylor

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -102
Projection3.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.2%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Mason Taylor

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 15.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.3
Proj. gap+12.8
Model win51.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-3.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tucker Kraft

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -146
Projection4.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.0%
No-vig market55.5%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-15.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tucker Kraft

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 47.5
fanduel -114
Projection63.3
Proj. gap+15.8
Model win57.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.1%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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