WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 3:25 PM CST
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
7 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 7 pending
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
Pending
UNDER 7.5
fanduel -125
Projection
5.5
Proj. gap
-2.0
Model win
87.4%
No-vig market
51.9%
No-vig edge
+35.5%
Model-implied EV
+57.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.5 is 2.0 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 87.4% vs 51.9% no-vig market probability creates a +35.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 87.4% model win, +35.5% no-vig edge, and +57.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 89.5
fanduel -114
Projection
78.8
Proj. gap
-10.7
Model win
76.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+26.1%
Model-implied EV
+42.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 78.8 is 10.7 below the 89.5 line.
Model win probability 76.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.1% model win, +26.1% no-vig edge, and +42.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -158
Projection
5.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
72.2%
No-vig market
57.2%
No-vig edge
+15.0%
Model-implied EV
+17.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.0 is 0.5 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 57.2% no-vig market probability creates a +15.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +15.0% no-vig edge, and +17.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection
87.8
Proj. gap
+26.3
Model win
71.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+21.2%
Model-implied EV
+33.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 87.8 is 26.3 above the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +21.2% no-vig edge, and +33.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
UNDER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection
59.4
Proj. gap
-3.1
Model win
69.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+19.8%
Model-implied EV
+31.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 59.4 is 3.1 below the 62.5 line.
Model win probability 69.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.8% model win, +19.8% no-vig edge, and +31.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection
65.0
Proj. gap
-0.5
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 65.0 is 0.5 below the 65.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel +134
Projection
1.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
57.6%
No-vig market
39.9%
No-vig edge
+17.6%
Model-implied EV
+34.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.6% vs 39.9% no-vig market probability creates a +17.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.6% model win, +17.6% no-vig edge, and +34.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection2.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win71.7%
No-vig market64.3%
No-vig edge+7.4%
Model-implied EV+4.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 255.5
fanduel -114
Projection243.4
Proj. gap-12.1
Model win57.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.2%
Model-implied EV+7.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win40.0%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge-7.2%
Model-implied EV-20.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.2
Proj. gap+2.7
Model win37.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.0%
Model-implied EV-30.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 263.5
fanduel -114
Projection264.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win49.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.4%
Model-implied EV-6.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516