WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

10 qualified model plays · 4 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 10 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 80.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +29.7% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +49.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Jones

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection 70.4
Proj. gap +42.9
Model win 89.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +39.1%
Model-implied EV +67.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 70.4 is 42.9 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 89.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +39.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 89.1% model win, +39.1% no-vig edge, and +67.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#2 MODEL PLAY

Jordan Love

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 257.5
fanduel -114
Projection 166.6
Proj. gap -90.9
Model win 88.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +38.4%
Model-implied EV +65.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 166.6 is 90.9 below the 257.5 line.
Model win probability 88.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 88.4% model win, +38.4% no-vig edge, and +65.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#3 MODEL PLAY

Christian Watson

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 73.5
fanduel -114
Projection 52.9
Proj. gap -20.6
Model win 83.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +33.8%
Model-implied EV +57.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.9 is 20.6 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 83.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +33.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 83.8% model win, +33.8% no-vig edge, and +57.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Tucker Kraft

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -174
Projection 3.0
Proj. gap -1.5
Model win 82.3%
No-vig market 59.4%
No-vig edge +23.0%
Model-implied EV +29.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.0 is 1.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 82.3% vs 59.4% no-vig market probability creates a +23.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 82.3% model win, +23.0% no-vig edge, and +29.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Justin Jefferson

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -140
Projection 5.1
Proj. gap -1.4
Model win 81.4%
No-vig market 54.6%
No-vig edge +26.9%
Model-implied EV +39.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.1 is 1.4 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 81.4% vs 54.6% no-vig market probability creates a +26.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.4% model win, +26.9% no-vig edge, and +39.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

T.J. Hockenson

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -130
Projection 3.1
Proj. gap -1.4
Model win 81.3%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +28.5%
Model-implied EV +43.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.1 is 1.4 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 81.3% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +28.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.3% model win, +28.5% no-vig edge, and +43.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Justin Jefferson

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 77.5
fanduel -114
Projection 63.3
Proj. gap -14.2
Model win 79.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +29.1%
Model-implied EV +48.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 63.3 is 14.2 below the 77.5 line.
Model win probability 79.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +29.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 79.1% model win, +29.1% no-vig edge, and +48.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

T.J. Hockenson

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection 29.6
Proj. gap -10.9
Model win 76.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.3%
Model-implied EV +43.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 29.6 is 10.9 below the 40.5 line.
Model win probability 76.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.3% model win, +26.3% no-vig edge, and +43.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#9 MODEL PLAY

Christian Watson

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +118
Projection 3.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.5%
No-vig market 42.8%
No-vig edge +32.7%
Model-implied EV +64.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.5% vs 42.8% no-vig market probability creates a +32.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.5% model win, +32.7% no-vig edge, and +64.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#10 MODEL PLAY

Jordan Mason

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 42.5
fanduel -114
Projection 67.1
Proj. gap +24.6
Model win 69.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +19.2%
Model-implied EV +29.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 67.1 is 24.6 above the 42.5 line.
Model win probability 69.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +19.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 69.2% model win, +19.2% no-vig edge, and +29.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Jones

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -158
Projection2.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.2%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-3.9%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Jones

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection16.9
Proj. gap+7.4
Model win43.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.5%
Model-implied EV-18.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jordan Love

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -125
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.2%
No-vig market51.9%
No-vig edge-1.7%
Model-implied EV-9.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tucker Kraft

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection45.5
Proj. gap+7.0
Model win42.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.5%
Model-implied EV-20.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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