WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns

10 qualified model plays · 11 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 10 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 70.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +19.3% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +30.1% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jerry Jeudy

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 16.5
fanduel -114
Projection 51.7
Proj. gap +35.2
Model win 84.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +34.5%
Model-implied EV +58.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.7 is 35.2 above the 16.5 line.
Model win probability 84.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +34.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.5% model win, +34.5% no-vig edge, and +58.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel -172
Projection 3.7
Proj. gap +2.2
Model win 75.9%
No-vig market 59.0%
No-vig edge +16.8%
Model-implied EV +20.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 2.2 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 75.9% vs 59.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.9% model win, +16.8% no-vig edge, and +20.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 244.5
fanduel -114
Projection 197.7
Proj. gap -46.8
Model win 74.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.0%
Model-implied EV +39.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 197.7 is 46.8 below the 244.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +39.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#4 MODEL PLAY

Dylan Sampson

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -148
Projection 2.9
Proj. gap -0.6
Model win 73.3%
No-vig market 56.1%
No-vig edge +17.2%
Model-implied EV +22.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.9 is 0.6 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 56.1% no-vig market probability creates a +17.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +17.2% no-vig edge, and +22.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Jerry Jeudy

Receptions
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel -136
Projection 3.5
Proj. gap +2.0
Model win 72.4%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +18.6%
Model-implied EV +25.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.5 is 2.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 72.4% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.4% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +25.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#6 MODEL PLAY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection 44.0
Proj. gap +23.5
Model win 68.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.7%
Model-implied EV +29.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 44.0 is 23.5 above the 20.5 line.
Model win probability 68.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.7% model win, +18.7% no-vig edge, and +29.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Nico Collins

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -136
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 68.5%
No-vig market 53.8%
No-vig edge +14.7%
Model-implied EV +18.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 53.8% no-vig market probability creates a +14.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +14.7% no-vig edge, and +18.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

Woody Marks

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 64.5
fanduel -114
Projection 62.1
Proj. gap -2.4
Model win 65.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +15.3%
Model-implied EV +22.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 62.1 is 2.4 below the 64.5 line.
Model win probability 65.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 65.3% model win, +15.3% no-vig edge, and +22.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#9 MODEL PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 5.5
fanduel -114
Projection 25.2
Proj. gap +19.7
Model win 62.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +12.3%
Model-implied EV +17.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 25.2 is 19.7 above the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 62.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.3% model win, +12.3% no-vig edge, and +17.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#10 MODEL PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Receptions
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel +154
Projection 2.8
Proj. gap +1.3
Model win 57.8%
No-vig market 36.8%
No-vig edge +21.0%
Model-implied EV +46.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.8% vs 36.8% no-vig market probability creates a +21.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 57.8% model win, +21.0% no-vig edge, and +46.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -106
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win55.0%
No-vig market48.1%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.3%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+0.1%
Model-implied EV-6.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection41.1
Proj. gap+10.6
Model win48.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dylan Sampson

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection31.1
Proj. gap+12.6
Model win52.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.4%
Model-implied EV-1.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dylan Sampson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.5
Proj. gap+7.0
Model win42.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.2%
Model-implied EV-19.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -154
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win54.0%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge-2.7%
Model-implied EV-10.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection43.1
Proj. gap+4.6
Model win39.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-10.6%
Model-implied EV-26.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Nico Collins

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 57.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.6
Proj. gap+11.1
Model win49.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.5%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quinshon Judkins

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection47.8
Proj. gap+3.3
Model win41.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.7%
Model-implied EV-22.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Xavier Hutchinson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -132
Projection2.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.5%
No-vig market53.2%
No-vig edge-9.7%
Model-implied EV-23.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.3
Proj. gap+7.8
Model win44.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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