WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

10 qualified model plays · 8 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 10 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 75.8% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +25.2% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +40.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Chuba Hubbard

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 80.5
fanduel -114
Projection 37.7
Proj. gap -42.8
Model win 90.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +40.8%
Model-implied EV +70.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 37.7 is 42.8 below the 80.5 line.
Model win probability 90.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +40.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 90.8% model win, +40.8% no-vig edge, and +70.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#2 MODEL PLAY

Juwan Johnson

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 21.5
fanduel -114
Projection 59.6
Proj. gap +38.1
Model win 87.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +37.2%
Model-implied EV +63.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 59.6 is 38.1 above the 21.5 line.
Model win probability 87.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +37.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 87.2% model win, +37.2% no-vig edge, and +63.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Tetairoa McMillan

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -118
Projection 3.6
Proj. gap -1.9
Model win 86.6%
No-vig market 50.6%
No-vig edge +36.0%
Model-implied EV +60.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.6 is 1.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 86.6% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +36.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 86.6% model win, +36.0% no-vig edge, and +60.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Tetairoa McMillan

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 68.5
fanduel -114
Projection 54.8
Proj. gap -13.7
Model win 78.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +28.8%
Model-implied EV +47.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.8 is 13.7 below the 68.5 line.
Model win probability 78.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.8% model win, +28.8% no-vig edge, and +47.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Bryce Young

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 244.5
fanduel -114
Projection 189.9
Proj. gap -54.6
Model win 76.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.4%
Model-implied EV +43.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 189.9 is 54.6 below the 244.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +43.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#6 MODEL PLAY

Jalen Coker

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -154
Projection 3.7
Proj. gap -0.8
Model win 75.4%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +18.7%
Model-implied EV +24.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.7 is 0.8 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +18.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +18.7% no-vig edge, and +24.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#7 MODEL PLAY

Juwan Johnson

Receptions
Pending
OVER 2.5
fanduel -144
Projection 4.5
Proj. gap +2.0
Model win 72.6%
No-vig market 55.1%
No-vig edge +17.5%
Model-implied EV +23.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.5 is 2.0 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 72.6% vs 55.1% no-vig market probability creates a +17.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.6% model win, +17.5% no-vig edge, and +23.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

Devaughn Vele

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 27.5
fanduel -114
Projection 48.7
Proj. gap +21.2
Model win 64.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +14.4%
Model-implied EV +20.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 48.7 is 21.2 above the 27.5 line.
Model win probability 64.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.4% model win, +14.4% no-vig edge, and +20.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#9 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Shough

Passing TDs
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel +112
Projection 1.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 64.3%
No-vig market 44.1%
No-vig edge +20.2%
Model-implied EV +36.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.0 is 0.5 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.3% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +20.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.3% model win, +20.2% no-vig edge, and +36.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#10 MODEL PLAY

Tyler Shough

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 252.5
fanduel -114
Projection 229.5
Proj. gap -23.0
Model win 61.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.6%
Model-implied EV +15.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 229.5 is 23.0 below the 252.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bryce Young

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -128
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.2%
No-vig market52.4%
No-vig edge-2.2%
Model-implied EV-10.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bryce Young

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 8.5
fanduel -114
Projection18.8
Proj. gap+10.3
Model win48.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chris Olave

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 5.5
fanduel -172
Projection6.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.8%
No-vig market59.0%
No-vig edge-10.3%
Model-implied EV-22.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Chris Olave

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 74.5
fanduel -114
Projection76.4
Proj. gap+1.9
Model win36.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-14.0%
Model-implied EV-32.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darren Waller

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -130
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.4%
No-vig market52.8%
No-vig edge+0.6%
Model-implied EV-5.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darren Waller

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection38.5
Proj. gap+9.0
Model win45.8%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-14.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Devaughn Vele

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +116
Projection4.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.6%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge+7.3%
Model-implied EV+9.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jalen Coker

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection48.1
Proj. gap+3.6
Model win38.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.0%
Model-implied EV-28.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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