WEEK 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 7:20 PM CDT

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks

4 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-3-0
← Back to Week 7
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 4 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 73.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.6% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +41.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Kenneth Walker III

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 88.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.4
Proj. gap -30.1
Model win 86.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +36.2%
Model-implied EV +61.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.4 is 30.1 below the 88.5 line.
Model win probability 86.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.2% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 86.2% model win, +36.2% no-vig edge, and +61.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 36 rushing yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 92.5
fanduel -114
Projection 79.1
Proj. gap -13.4
Model win 78.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +28.6%
Model-implied EV +47.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 79.1 is 13.4 below the 92.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +28.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +28.6% no-vig edge, and +47.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 150 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
fanduel +104
Projection 6.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 71.2%
No-vig market 45.8%
No-vig edge +25.4%
Model-implied EV +45.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.1 is 0.4 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 71.2% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +25.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 71.2% model win, +25.4% no-vig edge, and +45.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 9 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Sam Darnold

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 224.5
fanduel -114
Projection 210.3
Proj. gap -14.2
Model win 58.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.3%
Model-implied EV +9.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 210.3 is 14.2 below the 224.5 line.
Model win probability 58.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.3% model win, +8.3% no-vig edge, and +9.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 257 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -158
Projection3.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.7%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-15.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

AJ Barner

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection34.2
Proj. gap+8.7
Model win45.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.5%
Model-implied EV-14.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +106
Projection2.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win39.6%
No-vig market45.4%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-18.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cooper Kupp

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection35.0
Proj. gap+9.5
Model win46.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.3%
Model-implied EV-12.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Patrick Mahomes

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -210
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win59.3%
No-vig market63.2%
No-vig edge-3.9%
Model-implied EV-12.5%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Patrick Mahomes

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 220.5
fanduel -114
Projection230.3
Proj. gap+9.8
Model win52.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.9%
Model-implied EV-0.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Sam Darnold

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -162
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win58.7%
No-vig market57.9%
No-vig edge+0.9%
Model-implied EV-5.0%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →