WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

5 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-4-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 5 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 73.5% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +23.1% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +37.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Michael Wilson

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection 80.4
Proj. gap +42.9
Model win 91.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +41.2%
Model-implied EV +71.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 80.4 is 42.9 above the 37.5 line.
Model win probability 91.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.2% model win, +41.2% no-vig edge, and +71.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 18 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Trey McBride

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection 54.3
Proj. gap -6.2
Model win 72.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.7%
Model-implied EV +36.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.3 is 6.2 below the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 41 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Trey McBride

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -108
Projection 6.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 72.1%
No-vig market 48.6%
No-vig edge +23.5%
Model-implied EV +38.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 6.0 is 0.5 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 48.6% no-vig market probability creates a +23.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +23.5% no-vig edge, and +38.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 8 receptions
#4 MODEL PLAY

Michael Wilson

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 3.5
fanduel -132
Projection 5.2
Proj. gap +1.7
Model win 66.3%
No-vig market 53.2%
No-vig edge +13.1%
Model-implied EV +16.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.2 is 1.7 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 66.3% vs 53.2% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.3% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +16.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 2 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection 56.0
Proj. gap +21.5
Model win 65.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +15.1%
Model-implied EV +22.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 56.0 is 21.5 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 65.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 65.1% model win, +15.1% no-vig edge, and +22.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jacoby Brissett

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +194
Projection1.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win56.4%
No-vig market31.8%
No-vig edge+24.6%
Model-implied EV+65.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jacoby Brissett

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 216.5
fanduel -114
Projection223.7
Proj. gap+7.2
Model win52.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.5%
Model-implied EV-1.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -106
Projection7.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win47.9%
No-vig market48.1%
No-vig edge-0.2%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 81.5
fanduel -114
Projection82.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win34.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-15.5%
Model-implied EV-35.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +120
Projection4.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win44.4%
No-vig market42.5%
No-vig edge+1.9%
Model-implied EV-2.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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