WEEK 9 · Thu, Nov 5, 6:15 PM CST

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens

9 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 9 pending

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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 9 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.

Avg model win 72.2% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.

Avg no-vig edge +24.1% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.

Avg model-implied EV +43.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →

QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving yards

Pending

OVER 10.5

fanduel -114

Projection 61.9

Proj. gap +51.4

Model win 95.5%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +45.5%

Model-implied EV +79.3%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 61.9 is 51.4 above the 10.5 line.

Model win probability 95.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +45.5% edge.

Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 95.5% model win, +45.5% no-vig edge, and +79.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 2154

#2 MODEL PLAY

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receptions

Pending

OVER 1.5

fanduel +158

Projection 4.0

Proj. gap +2.5

Model win 81.4%

No-vig market 36.2%

No-vig edge +45.2%

Model-implied EV +110.1%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 4.0 is 2.5 above the 1.5 line.

Model win probability 81.4% vs 36.2% no-vig market probability creates a +45.2% edge.

Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 81.4% model win, +45.2% no-vig edge, and +110.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 2154

#3 MODEL PLAY

Zay Flowers

Receiving yards

Pending

OVER 47.5

fanduel -114

Projection 76.5

Proj. gap +29.0

Model win 76.7%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +26.7%

Model-implied EV +44.1%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 76.5 is 29.0 above the 47.5 line.

Model win probability 76.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.7% edge.

Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.7% model win, +26.7% no-vig edge, and +44.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 2154

#4 MODEL PLAY

Derrick Henry

Rushing yards

Pending

OVER 69.5

fanduel -114

Projection 100.4

Proj. gap +30.9

Model win 76.4%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +26.4%

Model-implied EV +43.4%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 100.4 is 30.9 above the 69.5 line.

Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.

Qualified with 796 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +43.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 796

#5 MODEL PLAY

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs

Pending

OVER 1.5

fanduel -132

Projection 2.1

Proj. gap +0.6

Model win 65.9%

No-vig market 53.2%

No-vig edge +12.7%

Model-implied EV +15.8%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 2.1 is 0.6 above the 1.5 line.

Model win probability 65.9% vs 53.2% no-vig market probability creates a +12.7% edge.

Qualified with 516 residual samples, 65.9% model win, +12.7% no-vig edge, and +15.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 516

#6 MODEL PLAY

Jakobi Meyers

Receiving yards

Pending

OVER 40.5

fanduel -114

Projection 61.8

Proj. gap +21.3

Model win 64.6%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +14.6%

Model-implied EV +21.2%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 61.8 is 21.3 above the 40.5 line.

Model win probability 64.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.

Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +21.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 2154

#7 MODEL PLAY

Parker Washington

Receiving yards

Pending

OVER 63.5

fanduel -114

Projection 84.5

Proj. gap +21.0

Model win 64.0%

No-vig market 50.0%

No-vig edge +14.0%

Model-implied EV +20.1%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 84.5 is 21.0 above the 63.5 line.

Model win probability 64.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.0% edge.

Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 64.0% model win, +14.0% no-vig edge, and +20.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 2154

#8 MODEL PLAY

Jakobi Meyers

Receptions

Pending

OVER 3.5

fanduel +116

Projection 5.1

Proj. gap +1.6

Model win 63.9%

No-vig market 43.3%

No-vig edge +20.6%

Model-implied EV +38.1%

WHY THIS PLAY

Projection 5.1 is 1.6 above the 3.5 line.

Model win probability 63.9% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.

Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.9% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +38.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.

Historical residual sample: 2154

#9 MODEL PLAY

Trevor Lawrence

Passing yards

Pending

OVER 237.5

fanduel -114

Projection 268.5

Proj. gap +31.0

Receptions

Did not qualify

Model side: OVER 4.5

fanduel +128

Projection4.8

Proj. gap+0.3

Model win41.0%

No-vig market41.0%

No-vig edge+0.1%

Model-implied EV-6.4%

Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.

Historical residual sample: 2154