WEEK 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2:05 PM CST

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

8 qualified model plays · 10 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 8 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.6% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +22.0% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +34.6% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Quentin Johnston

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 63.7
Proj. gap +32.2
Model win 80.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.8%
Model-implied EV +51.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 63.7 is 32.2 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 80.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.8% model win, +30.8% no-vig edge, and +51.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Nico Collins

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -160
Projection 4.2
Proj. gap -1.3
Model win 80.4%
No-vig market 57.5%
No-vig edge +22.9%
Model-implied EV +30.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 1.3 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 80.4% vs 57.5% no-vig market probability creates a +22.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.4% model win, +22.9% no-vig edge, and +30.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receiving yards
Pending
OVER 26.5
fanduel -114
Projection 54.8
Proj. gap +28.3
Model win 75.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.9%
Model-implied EV +42.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 54.8 is 28.3 above the 26.5 line.
Model win probability 75.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.9% model win, +25.9% no-vig edge, and +42.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Woody Marks

Rushing yards
Pending
UNDER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection 52.7
Proj. gap -9.8
Model win 73.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +23.4%
Model-implied EV +37.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.7 is 9.8 below the 62.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +23.4% no-vig edge, and +37.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#5 MODEL PLAY

Omarion Hampton

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection 55.8
Proj. gap +27.3
Model win 72.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.1%
Model-implied EV +35.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 55.8 is 27.3 above the 28.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +35.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#6 MODEL PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 248.5
fanduel -114
Projection 212.9
Proj. gap -35.6
Model win 68.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.6%
Model-implied EV +28.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 212.9 is 35.6 below the 248.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +28.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#7 MODEL PLAY

Ladd McConkey

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection 3.3
Proj. gap -0.2
Model win 67.8%
No-vig market 47.2%
No-vig edge +20.6%
Model-implied EV +34.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 0.2 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +34.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#8 MODEL PLAY

Kimani Vidal

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection 45.1
Proj. gap +19.6
Model win 61.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +11.6%
Model-implied EV +15.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 45.1 is 19.6 above the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -118
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win54.8%
No-vig market50.6%
No-vig edge+4.2%
Model-implied EV+1.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -154
Projection4.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.4%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-21.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection40.0
Proj. gap+5.5
Model win40.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.4%
Model-implied EV-23.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Justin Herbert

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -270
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win56.2%
No-vig market68.2%
No-vig edge-12.0%
Model-implied EV-23.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Justin Herbert

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 208.5
fanduel -114
Projection221.6
Proj. gap+13.1
Model win54.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Justin Herbert

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 22.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.4
Proj. gap+5.9
Model win43.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-6.7%
Model-implied EV-18.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ladd McConkey

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection51.0
Proj. gap+2.5
Model win36.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-13.5%
Model-implied EV-31.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -112
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.1%
No-vig market49.4%
No-vig edge+6.7%
Model-implied EV+6.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Nico Collins

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 64.5
fanduel -114
Projection80.1
Proj. gap+15.6
Model win56.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+6.9%
Model-implied EV+6.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quentin Johnston

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +102
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.7%
No-vig market46.2%
No-vig edge+7.5%
Model-implied EV+8.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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