WEEK 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 11:00 AM CST

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

5 qualified model plays · 17 modeled lines did not qualify · 3-2-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 5 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 67.1% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +16.0% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +24.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jerry Jeudy

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 21.5
fanduel -113
Projection 50.2
Proj. gap +28.7
Model win 76.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +26.4%
Model-implied EV +44.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 50.2 is 28.7 above the 21.5 line.
Model win probability 76.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +26.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 76.4% model win, +26.4% no-vig edge, and +44.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Rico Dowdle

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 31.5
fanduel -113
Projection 58.0
Proj. gap +26.5
Model win 71.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +21.4%
Model-implied EV +34.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.0 is 26.5 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 71.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +21.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 71.4% model win, +21.4% no-vig edge, and +34.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 56 rushing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Quinshon Judkins

Rushing yards
WIN
UNDER 47.5
fanduel -113
Projection 45.9
Proj. gap -1.6
Model win 64.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +14.6%
Model-implied EV +21.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 45.9 is 1.6 below the 47.5 line.
Model win probability 64.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +14.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 64.6% model win, +14.6% no-vig edge, and +21.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 25 rushing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -144
Projection 1.1
Proj. gap -0.4
Model win 64.1%
No-vig market 55.3%
No-vig edge +8.8%
Model-implied EV +8.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.1 is 0.4 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.1% vs 55.3% no-vig market probability creates a +8.8% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.1% model win, +8.8% no-vig edge, and +8.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
#5 MODEL PLAY

Dylan Sampson

Rushing yards
LOSS
OVER 11.5
fanduel -113
Projection 29.1
Proj. gap +17.6
Model win 59.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.0%
Model-implied EV +11.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 29.1 is 17.6 above the 11.5 line.
Model win probability 59.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.0% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 59.0% model win, +9.0% no-vig edge, and +11.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 7 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Aaron Rodgers

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 218.5
fanduel -113
Projection212.8
Proj. gap-5.7
Model win54.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DK Metcalf

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 4.5
fanduel -166
Projection4.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win64.8%
No-vig market58.3%
No-vig edge+6.5%
Model-implied EV+3.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model-implied EV did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

DK Metcalf

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 52.5
fanduel -113
Projection58.5
Proj. gap+6.0
Model win41.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.8%
Model-implied EV-22.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darnell Washington

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +114
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.3%
No-vig market43.9%
No-vig edge-6.6%
Model-implied EV-20.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Darnell Washington

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 20.5
fanduel -113
Projection28.7
Proj. gap+8.2
Model win44.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.3%
Model-implied EV-15.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dylan Sampson

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -102
Projection3.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.2%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dylan Sampson

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 16.5
fanduel -113
Projection25.2
Proj. gap+8.7
Model win45.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.7%
Model-implied EV-14.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -122
Projection4.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.3%
No-vig market51.6%
No-vig edge-6.3%
Model-implied EV-17.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 34.5
fanduel -113
Projection43.8
Proj. gap+9.3
Model win46.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.7%
Model-implied EV-12.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jaylen Warren

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 64.5
fanduel -113
Projection73.6
Proj. gap+9.1
Model win47.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-2.4%
Model-implied EV-10.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jerry Jeudy

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel +148
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+1.0
Model win53.7%
No-vig market37.7%
No-vig edge+16.0%
Model-implied EV+33.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Pat Freiermuth

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -154
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win45.2%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge-11.5%
Model-implied EV-25.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Pat Freiermuth

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 24.5
fanduel -113
Projection36.0
Proj. gap+11.5
Model win49.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.1%
Model-implied EV-5.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quinshon Judkins

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -180
Projection3.0
Proj. gap+1.5
Model win63.5%
No-vig market60.1%
No-vig edge+3.4%
Model-implied EV-1.3%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Quinshon Judkins

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 9.5
fanduel -113
Projection21.9
Proj. gap+12.4
Model win51.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.2%
Model-implied EV-3.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -114
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.8%
Model-implied EV-30.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rico Dowdle

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 14.5
fanduel -113
Projection14.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win33.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-16.7%
Model-implied EV-37.2%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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