WEEK 7 · Mon, Oct 26, 7:15 PM CDT

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

10 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 7-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 74.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +39.4% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

CeeDee Lamb

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 7.5
fanduel -152
Projection 4.7
Proj. gap -2.8
Model win 92.9%
No-vig market 56.3%
No-vig edge +36.5%
Model-implied EV +53.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 2.8 below the 7.5 line.
Model win probability 92.9% vs 56.3% no-vig market probability creates a +36.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 92.9% model win, +36.5% no-vig edge, and +53.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

Tanner McKee

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 211.5
fanduel -114
Projection 125.7
Proj. gap -85.8
Model win 87.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +37.4%
Model-implied EV +64.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 125.7 is 85.8 below the 211.5 line.
Model win probability 87.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +37.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 87.4% model win, +37.4% no-vig edge, and +64.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 211 passing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Tanner McKee

Passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -182
Projection 0.3
Proj. gap -1.2
Model win 82.6%
No-vig market 60.4%
No-vig edge +22.2%
Model-implied EV +27.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 0.3 is 1.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 82.6% vs 60.4% no-vig market probability creates a +22.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 82.6% model win, +22.2% no-vig edge, and +27.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 1 passing TD
#4 MODEL PLAY

CeeDee Lamb

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 81.5
fanduel -114
Projection 65.7
Proj. gap -15.8
Model win 80.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +30.0%
Model-implied EV +50.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 65.7 is 15.8 below the 81.5 line.
Model win probability 80.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +30.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.0% model win, +30.0% no-vig edge, and +50.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 74 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Dallas Goedert

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +108
Projection 3.8
Proj. gap -0.7
Model win 74.7%
No-vig market 44.9%
No-vig edge +29.9%
Model-implied EV +55.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 44.9% no-vig market probability creates a +29.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +29.9% no-vig edge, and +55.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
#6 MODEL PLAY

Dak Prescott

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 268.5
fanduel -114
Projection 221.6
Proj. gap -46.9
Model win 74.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +24.0%
Model-implied EV +39.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 221.6 is 46.9 below the 268.5 line.
Model win probability 74.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.0% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 74.0% model win, +24.0% no-vig edge, and +39.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 212 passing yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Dallas Goedert

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 40.5
fanduel -114
Projection 38.5
Proj. gap -2.0
Model win 68.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.8%
Model-implied EV +29.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 38.5 is 2.0 below the 40.5 line.
Model win probability 68.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.8% model win, +18.8% no-vig edge, and +29.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 48 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

George Pickens

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +106
Projection 4.4
Proj. gap -0.1
Model win 66.0%
No-vig market 45.4%
No-vig edge +20.6%
Model-implied EV +36.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.4 is 0.1 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 66.0% vs 45.4% no-vig market probability creates a +20.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.0% model win, +20.6% no-vig edge, and +36.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 4 receptions
#9 MODEL PLAY

Ryan Flournoy

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 32.5
fanduel -114
Projection 52.2
Proj. gap +19.7
Model win 62.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +12.3%
Model-implied EV +17.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 52.2 is 19.7 above the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 62.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.3% model win, +12.3% no-vig edge, and +17.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 70 receiving yards
#10 MODEL PLAY

Dak Prescott

Passing TDs
LOSS
UNDER 1.5
fanduel +110
Projection 1.3
Proj. gap -0.2
Model win 57.9%
No-vig market 44.5%
No-vig edge +13.4%
Model-implied EV +21.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 44.5% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +21.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 3 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

George Pickens

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection68.1
Proj. gap+5.6
Model win40.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.3%
Model-implied EV-23.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Javonte Williams

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 66.5
fanduel -114
Projection66.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win37.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.6%
Model-implied EV-29.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Ryan Flournoy

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +100
Projection3.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win44.0%
No-vig market46.8%
No-vig edge-2.8%
Model-implied EV-12.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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