WEEK 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CDT

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

8 qualified model plays · 9 modeled lines did not qualify · 5-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 8 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 73.8% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +42.0% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 17.5
fanduel -114
Projection 60.2
Proj. gap +42.7
Model win 91.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +41.2%
Model-implied EV +71.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 60.2 is 42.7 above the 17.5 line.
Model win probability 91.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +41.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 91.2% model win, +41.2% no-vig edge, and +71.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receiving yards
#2 MODEL PLAY

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Rushing yards
WIN
OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection 57.4
Proj. gap +38.9
Model win 86.3%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +36.3%
Model-implied EV +62.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 57.4 is 38.9 above the 18.5 line.
Model win probability 86.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.3% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 86.3% model win, +36.3% no-vig edge, and +62.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 55 rushing yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

C.J. Stroud

Passing yards
LOSS
UNDER 256.5
fanduel -114
Projection 206.4
Proj. gap -50.1
Model win 75.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.2%
Model-implied EV +41.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 206.4 is 50.1 below the 256.5 line.
Model win probability 75.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 75.2% model win, +25.2% no-vig edge, and +41.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 312 passing yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receptions
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel -122
Projection 3.5
Proj. gap +2.0
Model win 73.3%
No-vig market 51.4%
No-vig edge +21.9%
Model-implied EV +33.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.5 is 2.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 73.3% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +21.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.3% model win, +21.9% no-vig edge, and +33.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 0 receptions
#5 MODEL PLAY

Jakobi Meyers

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 34.5
fanduel -114
Projection 60.2
Proj. gap +25.7
Model win 72.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.1%
Model-implied EV +35.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 60.2 is 25.7 above the 34.5 line.
Model win probability 72.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.1% model win, +22.1% no-vig edge, and +35.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 83 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel +136
Projection 2.2
Proj. gap +0.7
Model win 66.9%
No-vig market 39.6%
No-vig edge +27.2%
Model-implied EV +57.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.2 is 0.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 66.9% vs 39.6% no-vig market probability creates a +27.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.9% model win, +27.2% no-vig edge, and +57.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
#7 MODEL PLAY

Parker Washington

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection 83.4
Proj. gap +21.9
Model win 66.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +16.0%
Model-implied EV +23.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 83.4 is 21.9 above the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 66.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.0% model win, +16.0% no-vig edge, and +23.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 64 receiving yards
#8 MODEL PLAY

Trevor Lawrence

Passing yards
WIN
OVER 223.5
fanduel -114
Projection 250.3
Proj. gap +26.8
Model win 59.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.1%
Model-implied EV +11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 250.3 is 26.8 above the 223.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 306 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Brenton Strange

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -158
Projection4.0
Proj. gap+0.5
Model win44.5%
No-vig market57.2%
No-vig edge-12.7%
Model-implied EV-27.4%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Brenton Strange

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 37.5
fanduel -114
Projection38.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win34.9%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-15.1%
Model-implied EV-34.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

C.J. Stroud

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -162
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win54.8%
No-vig market57.9%
No-vig edge-3.0%
Model-implied EV-11.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +100
Projection4.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.3%
No-vig market46.8%
No-vig edge+0.5%
Model-implied EV-5.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Dalton Schultz

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 30.5
fanduel -114
Projection40.8
Proj. gap+10.3
Model win48.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.9%
Model-implied EV-9.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jakobi Meyers

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +124
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win55.0%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+13.3%
Model-implied EV+23.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Parker Washington

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -120
Projection4.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win36.4%
No-vig market51.0%
No-vig edge-14.6%
Model-implied EV-33.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Trevor Lawrence

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 12.5
fanduel -114
Projection22.8
Proj. gap+10.3
Model win48.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.3%
Model-implied EV-8.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Woody Marks

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 47.5
fanduel -114
Projection51.9
Proj. gap+4.4
Model win42.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.5%
Model-implied EV-20.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
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