WEEK 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
5 qualified model plays · 10 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-4-0
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -152
Projection
3.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
69.5%
No-vig market
56.3%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+15.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 69.5% vs 56.3% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 69.5% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +15.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection
4.2
Proj. gap
-0.3
Model win
68.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+18.5%
Model-implied EV
+28.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.2 is 0.3 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 68.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.5% model win, +18.5% no-vig edge, and +28.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 5 receptions
LOSS
OVER 48.5
fanduel -114
Projection
68.5
Proj. gap
+20.0
Model win
62.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+12.8%
Model-implied EV
+17.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 68.5 is 20.0 above the 48.5 line.
Model win probability 62.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +12.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 62.8% model win, +12.8% no-vig edge, and +17.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 47 receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 61.5
fanduel -114
Projection
81.2
Proj. gap
+19.7
Model win
61.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+11.6%
Model-implied EV
+15.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 81.2 is 19.7 above the 61.5 line.
Model win probability 61.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +11.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 61.6% model win, +11.6% no-vig edge, and +15.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 43 rushing yards
LOSS
UNDER 233.5
fanduel -114
Projection
220.0
Proj. gap
-13.5
Model win
58.3%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+8.3%
Model-implied EV
+9.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 220.0 is 13.5 below the 233.5 line.
Model win probability 58.3% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.3% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.3% model win, +8.3% no-vig edge, and +9.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 367 passing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +116
Projection4.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.8%
No-vig market43.3%
No-vig edge-5.5%
Model-implied EV-18.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection74.9
Proj. gap+14.4
Model win54.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.5%
Model-implied EV+2.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -160
Projection4.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win51.6%
No-vig market57.5%
No-vig edge-5.9%
Model-implied EV-16.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 35.5
fanduel -114
Projection49.3
Proj. gap+13.8
Model win53.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+3.4%
Model-implied EV+0.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +124
Projection1.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win50.8%
No-vig market41.7%
No-vig edge+9.1%
Model-implied EV+13.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 29.5
fanduel -114
Projection44.5
Proj. gap+15.0
Model win55.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.5%
Model-implied EV+4.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel -128
Projection4.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win42.8%
No-vig market52.4%
No-vig edge-9.6%
Model-implied EV-23.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -182
Projection3.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.2%
No-vig market60.4%
No-vig edge-4.2%
Model-implied EV-13.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection52.0
Proj. gap+13.5
Model win52.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+2.6%
Model-implied EV-1.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection56.2
Proj. gap+6.7
Model win42.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-7.8%
Model-implied EV-20.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154