WEEK 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 12:00 PM CDT

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears

10 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 9-1-0
← Back to Week 4
MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 10 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 69.2% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +19.9% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +31.4% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receptions
WIN
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -122
Projection 5.4
Proj. gap -1.1
Model win 78.6%
No-vig market 51.4%
No-vig edge +27.2%
Model-implied EV +43.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 5.4 is 1.1 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 51.4% no-vig market probability creates a +27.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +27.2% no-vig edge, and +43.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 3 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

Rome Odunze

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 28.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.2
Proj. gap +29.7
Model win 77.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +27.7%
Model-implied EV +45.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.2 is 29.7 above the 28.5 line.
Model win probability 77.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.7% model win, +27.7% no-vig edge, and +45.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 94 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Garrett Wilson

Receiving yards
WIN
UNDER 77.5
fanduel -114
Projection 64.9
Proj. gap -12.6
Model win 77.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +27.5%
Model-implied EV +45.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.9 is 12.6 below the 77.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +27.5% no-vig edge, and +45.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 27 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Luther Burden III

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 46.5
fanduel -114
Projection 74.5
Proj. gap +28.0
Model win 75.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.4%
Model-implied EV +41.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 74.5 is 28.0 above the 46.5 line.
Model win probability 75.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.4% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.4% model win, +25.4% no-vig edge, and +41.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 63 receiving yards
#5 MODEL PLAY

Colston Loveland

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 31.5
fanduel -114
Projection 58.4
Proj. gap +26.9
Model win 73.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +23.7%
Model-implied EV +38.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 58.4 is 26.9 above the 31.5 line.
Model win probability 73.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.7% model win, +23.7% no-vig edge, and +38.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 57 receiving yards
#6 MODEL PLAY

Cole Kmet

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection 32.8
Proj. gap +23.3
Model win 68.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.2%
Model-implied EV +28.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 32.8 is 23.3 above the 9.5 line.
Model win probability 68.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 68.2% model win, +18.2% no-vig edge, and +28.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 13 receiving yards
#7 MODEL PLAY

Rome Odunze

Receptions
WIN
OVER 2.5
fanduel +104
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap +1.5
Model win 63.1%
No-vig market 45.8%
No-vig edge +17.3%
Model-implied EV +28.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 1.5 above the 2.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 45.8% no-vig market probability creates a +17.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +17.3% no-vig edge, and +28.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
#8 MODEL PLAY

Geno Smith

Passing yards
WIN
UNDER 227.5
fanduel -114
Projection 209.5
Proj. gap -18.0
Model win 59.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.9%
Model-implied EV +12.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 209.5 is 18.0 below the 227.5 line.
Model win probability 59.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.9% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.9% model win, +9.9% no-vig edge, and +12.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 119 passing yards
#9 MODEL PLAY

Colston Loveland

Receptions
WIN
OVER 3.5
fanduel +102
Projection 4.8
Proj. gap +1.3
Model win 59.5%
No-vig market 46.2%
No-vig edge +13.3%
Model-implied EV +20.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.8 is 1.3 above the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 59.5% vs 46.2% no-vig market probability creates a +13.3% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.5% model win, +13.3% no-vig edge, and +20.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receptions
#10 MODEL PLAY

Kalif Raymond

Receiving yards
LOSS
OVER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection 50.8
Proj. gap +17.3
Model win 58.8%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.8%
Model-implied EV +10.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 50.8 is 17.3 above the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 58.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 58.8% model win, +8.8% no-vig edge, and +10.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 6 receiving yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Cole Kmet

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel +182
Projection2.7
Proj. gap+1.2
Model win56.9%
No-vig market33.2%
No-vig edge+23.7%
Model-implied EV+60.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

D'Andre Swift

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 66.5
fanduel -114
Projection69.0
Proj. gap+2.5
Model win40.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Geno Smith

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection1.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win57.0%
No-vig market64.3%
No-vig edge-7.3%
Model-implied EV-17.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kalif Raymond

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel +108
Projection3.5
Proj. gap+0.0
Model win36.6%
No-vig market44.9%
No-vig edge-8.3%
Model-implied EV-23.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Kyle Monangai

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 38.5
fanduel -114
Projection53.5
Proj. gap+15.0
Model win55.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.4%
Model-implied EV+4.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Luther Burden III

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +106
Projection5.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.7%
No-vig market45.4%
No-vig edge+3.3%
Model-implied EV+0.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
PDR is part of The Buffet. Turn your sports takes into challenges with friends at Buffet Bets →