WEEK 2 · Mon, Sep 21, 7:15 PM CDT
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
6 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 4-1-0 - 1 void
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
WIN
OVER 1.5
fanduel -220
Projection
2.8
Proj. gap
+1.3
Model win
84.7%
No-vig market
64.3%
No-vig edge
+20.4%
Model-implied EV
+23.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 1.3 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 84.7% vs 64.3% no-vig market probability creates a +20.4% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 84.7% model win, +20.4% no-vig edge, and +23.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 4 passing TDs
WIN
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -114
Projection
4.8
Proj. gap
-0.7
Model win
74.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+24.7%
Model-implied EV
+40.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.8 is 0.7 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 74.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.7% model win, +24.7% no-vig edge, and +40.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 1 reception
VOID
OVER 85.5
fanduel -114
Projection
108.0
Proj. gap
+22.5
Model win
66.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.6%
Model-implied EV
+25.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 108.0 is 22.5 above the 85.5 line.
Model win probability 66.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 66.6% model win, +16.6% no-vig edge, and +25.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
WIN
UNDER 216.5
fanduel -114
Projection
182.5
Proj. gap
-34.0
Model win
66.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.5%
Model-implied EV
+24.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 182.5 is 34.0 below the 216.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +16.5% no-vig edge, and +24.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 20 passing yards
LOSS
OVER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection
69.9
Proj. gap
+20.4
Model win
63.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.1%
Model-implied EV
+18.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 69.9 is 20.4 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 63.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.1% model win, +13.1% no-vig edge, and +18.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 36 rushing yards
WIN
OVER 43.5
fanduel -114
Projection
61.4
Proj. gap
+17.9
Model win
59.4%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.4%
Model-implied EV
+11.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 61.4 is 17.9 above the 43.5 line.
Model win probability 59.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 59.4% model win, +9.4% no-vig edge, and +11.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Final: 79 rushing yards
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -136
Projection4.3
Proj. gap+0.8
Model win50.3%
No-vig market53.8%
No-vig edge-3.5%
Model-implied EV-12.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection55.0
Proj. gap+10.5
Model win48.6%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-1.4%
Model-implied EV-8.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -260
Projection1.0
Proj. gap-0.5
Model win67.4%
No-vig market67.5%
No-vig edge-0.1%
Model-implied EV-6.6%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 62.5
fanduel -114
Projection77.1
Proj. gap+14.6
Model win55.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.0%
Model-implied EV+3.3%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection71.5
Proj. gap+6.0
Model win41.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-8.7%
Model-implied EV-22.4%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 242.5
fanduel -114
Projection255.0
Proj. gap+12.5
Model win54.1%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.1%
Model-implied EV+1.5%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 6.5
fanduel -130
Projection7.6
Proj. gap+1.1
Model win54.3%
No-vig market52.8%
No-vig edge+1.5%
Model-implied EV-3.9%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154