WEEK 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

4 qualified model plays · 7 modeled lines did not qualify · 1-3-0
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 4 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 74.1% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +24.4% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +40.1% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receptions
LOSS
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -146
Projection 3.3
Proj. gap -1.2
Model win 80.1%
No-vig market 55.5%
No-vig edge +24.6%
Model-implied EV +34.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.3 is 1.2 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 80.1% vs 55.5% no-vig market probability creates a +24.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 80.1% model win, +24.6% no-vig edge, and +34.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 8 receptions
#2 MODEL PLAY

Parker Washington

Receiving yards
WIN
OVER 49.5
fanduel -114
Projection 77.9
Proj. gap +28.4
Model win 75.9%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.9%
Model-implied EV +42.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 77.9 is 28.4 above the 49.5 line.
Model win probability 75.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.9% model win, +25.9% no-vig edge, and +42.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 98 receiving yards
#3 MODEL PLAY

Jaylen Waddle

Receiving yards
LOSS
UNDER 52.5
fanduel -114
Projection 46.1
Proj. gap -6.4
Model win 72.7%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +22.7%
Model-implied EV +36.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 46.1 is 6.4 below the 52.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +22.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +22.7% no-vig edge, and +36.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Final: 138 receiving yards
#4 MODEL PLAY

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs
LOSS
OVER 1.5
fanduel +116
Projection 2.2
Proj. gap +0.7
Model win 67.8%
No-vig market 43.3%
No-vig edge +24.5%
Model-implied EV +46.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.2 is 0.7 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 43.3% no-vig market probability creates a +24.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +24.5% no-vig edge, and +46.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Final: 0 passing TDs
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bo Nix

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -154
Projection1.2
Proj. gap-0.3
Model win61.4%
No-vig market56.7%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+1.3%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bo Nix

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 219.5
fanduel -114
Projection217.9
Proj. gap-1.6
Model win51.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.7%
Model-implied EV-2.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Courtland Sutton

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -106
Projection4.2
Proj. gap+0.7
Model win48.1%
No-vig market48.1%
No-vig edge+0.0%
Model-implied EV-6.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Courtland Sutton

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 41.5
fanduel -114
Projection56.4
Proj. gap+14.9
Model win55.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+5.4%
Model-implied EV+4.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

J.K. Dobbins

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection70.9
Proj. gap+16.4
Model win57.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+7.0%
Model-implied EV+7.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Parker Washington

Receptions
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 4.5
fanduel +118
Projection4.9
Proj. gap+0.4
Model win43.8%
No-vig market42.8%
No-vig edge+1.0%
Model-implied EV-4.5%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Trevor Lawrence

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 220.5
fanduel -114
Projection233.9
Proj. gap+13.4
Model win54.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+4.3%
Model-implied EV+1.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
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