WEEK 10 · Mon, Nov 16, 7:15 PM CST
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
8 qualified model plays · 5 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 8 pending
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
Pending
OVER 77.5
fanduel -114
Projection
105.5
Proj. gap
+28.0
Model win
73.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+23.6%
Model-implied EV
+38.2%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 105.5 is 28.0 above the 77.5 line.
Model win probability 73.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +23.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 73.6% model win, +23.6% no-vig edge, and +38.2% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel +154
Projection
3.5
Proj. gap
+2.0
Model win
73.4%
No-vig market
36.8%
No-vig edge
+36.7%
Model-implied EV
+86.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.5 is 2.0 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 73.4% vs 36.8% no-vig market probability creates a +36.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 73.4% model win, +36.7% no-vig edge, and +86.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -102
Projection
4.9
Proj. gap
-0.6
Model win
72.7%
No-vig market
47.2%
No-vig edge
+25.5%
Model-implied EV
+43.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.9 is 0.6 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 72.7% vs 47.2% no-vig market probability creates a +25.5% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.7% model win, +25.5% no-vig edge, and +43.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
OVER 9.5
fanduel -114
Projection
32.8
Proj. gap
+23.3
Model win
67.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+17.8%
Model-implied EV
+27.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 32.8 is 23.3 above the 9.5 line.
Model win probability 67.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +17.8% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 67.8% model win, +17.8% no-vig edge, and +27.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
OVER 208.5
fanduel -114
Projection
249.3
Proj. gap
+40.8
Model win
66.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.5%
Model-implied EV
+24.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 249.3 is 40.8 above the 208.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +16.5% no-vig edge, and +24.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Pending
OVER 18.5
fanduel -114
Projection
40.5
Proj. gap
+22.0
Model win
65.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+15.5%
Model-implied EV
+22.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 40.5 is 22.0 above the 18.5 line.
Model win probability 65.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +15.5% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 65.5% model win, +15.5% no-vig edge, and +22.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
OVER 32.5
fanduel -114
Projection
51.4
Proj. gap
+18.9
Model win
60.9%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.9%
Model-implied EV
+14.4%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 51.4 is 18.9 above the 32.5 line.
Model win probability 60.9% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.9% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.9% model win, +10.9% no-vig edge, and +14.4% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
OVER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection
22.2
Proj. gap
+17.7
Model win
59.6%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+9.6%
Model-implied EV
+11.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 22.2 is 17.7 above the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 59.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 59.6% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +11.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 0.5
fanduel -270
Projection1.4
Proj. gap+0.9
Model win71.9%
No-vig market68.2%
No-vig edge+3.7%
Model-implied EV-1.5%
Why it did not qualify:
No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 20.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.8
Proj. gap+8.3
Model win46.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-3.8%
Model-implied EV-13.2%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 2.5
fanduel -114
Projection2.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win37.7%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.3%
Model-implied EV-29.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 19.5
fanduel -114
Projection22.5
Proj. gap+3.0
Model win37.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-12.7%
Model-implied EV-30.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 69.5
fanduel -114
Projection81.9
Proj. gap+12.4
Model win51.3%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+1.3%
Model-implied EV-3.8%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154