WEEK 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 6:20 PM CST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears

5 qualified model plays · 6 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 5 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 5 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 68.3% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +14.8% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +19.3% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Luther Burden III

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -154
Projection 4.4
Proj. gap -1.1
Model win 78.6%
No-vig market 56.7%
No-vig edge +21.9%
Model-implied EV +29.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.4 is 1.1 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 78.6% vs 56.7% no-vig market probability creates a +21.9% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 78.6% model win, +21.9% no-vig edge, and +29.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#2 MODEL PLAY

Colston Loveland

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 5.5
fanduel -130
Projection 4.6
Proj. gap -0.9
Model win 77.5%
No-vig market 52.8%
No-vig edge +24.7%
Model-implied EV +37.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.6 is 0.9 below the 5.5 line.
Model win probability 77.5% vs 52.8% no-vig market probability creates a +24.7% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.5% model win, +24.7% no-vig edge, and +37.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Rome Odunze

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 3.5
fanduel -166
Projection 3.2
Proj. gap -0.3
Model win 67.9%
No-vig market 58.3%
No-vig edge +9.6%
Model-implied EV +8.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.2 is 0.3 below the 3.5 line.
Model win probability 67.9% vs 58.3% no-vig market probability creates a +9.6% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 67.9% model win, +9.6% no-vig edge, and +8.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Caleb Williams

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 245.5
fanduel -114
Projection 229.7
Proj. gap -15.8
Model win 59.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +9.1%
Model-implied EV +11.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 229.7 is 15.8 below the 245.5 line.
Model win probability 59.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +9.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 59.1% model win, +9.1% no-vig edge, and +11.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#5 MODEL PLAY

Baker Mayfield

Passing yards
Pending
OVER 213.5
fanduel -114
Projection 236.5
Proj. gap +23.0
Model win 58.5%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +8.5%
Model-implied EV +9.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 236.5 is 23.0 above the 213.5 line.
Model win probability 58.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +8.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 58.5% model win, +8.5% no-vig edge, and +9.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Baker Mayfield

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 1.5
fanduel -188
Projection1.5
Proj. gap-0.0
Model win55.0%
No-vig market61.0%
No-vig edge-6.0%
Model-implied EV-15.7%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Bucky Irving

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 63.5
fanduel -114
Projection69.8
Proj. gap+6.3
Model win44.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-5.8%
Model-implied EV-17.0%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Caleb Williams

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -138
Projection1.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win58.9%
No-vig market54.2%
No-vig edge+4.7%
Model-implied EV+1.6%
Why it did not qualify: No-vig market edge did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Colston Loveland

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 50.5
fanduel -114
Projection51.8
Proj. gap+1.3
Model win35.0%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-15.0%
Model-implied EV-34.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Luther Burden III

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 65.5
fanduel -114
Projection67.0
Proj. gap+1.5
Model win35.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-14.8%
Model-implied EV-33.9%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Rome Odunze

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 50.5
fanduel -114
Projection50.7
Proj. gap+0.2
Model win33.4%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-16.6%
Model-implied EV-37.3%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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