WEEK 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2:05 PM CST
Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers
9 qualified model plays · 3 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 9 pending
MODEL OVERVIEW
What the board is seeing
Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.
How the model works →QUALIFIED PLAYS
Game prop board
Ranked by the frozen published model board.
Pending
UNDER 76.5
fanduel -114
Projection
47.2
Proj. gap
-29.3
Model win
88.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+38.1%
Model-implied EV
+65.3%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 47.2 is 29.3 below the 76.5 line.
Model win probability 88.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 88.1% model win, +38.1% no-vig edge, and +65.3% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection
64.2
Proj. gap
+38.7
Model win
86.1%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+36.1%
Model-implied EV
+61.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.2 is 38.7 above the 25.5 line.
Model win probability 86.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +36.1% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 86.1% model win, +36.1% no-vig edge, and +61.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
UNDER 6.5
fanduel -114
Projection
4.7
Proj. gap
-1.8
Model win
85.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+35.2%
Model-implied EV
+60.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.7 is 1.8 below the 6.5 line.
Model win probability 85.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +35.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 85.2% model win, +35.2% no-vig edge, and +60.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -148
Projection
2.8
Proj. gap
-1.7
Model win
84.0%
No-vig market
55.9%
No-vig edge
+28.2%
Model-implied EV
+40.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.8 is 1.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 84.0% vs 55.9% no-vig market probability creates a +28.2% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 84.0% model win, +28.2% no-vig edge, and +40.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 33.5
fanduel -114
Projection
24.5
Proj. gap
-9.0
Model win
74.8%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+24.8%
Model-implied EV
+40.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 24.5 is 9.0 below the 33.5 line.
Model win probability 74.8% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +24.8% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 74.8% model win, +24.8% no-vig edge, and +40.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Pending
UNDER 250.5
fanduel -114
Projection
216.4
Proj. gap
-34.1
Model win
66.5%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+16.5%
Model-implied EV
+24.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 216.4 is 34.1 below the 250.5 line.
Model win probability 66.5% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +16.5% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 66.5% model win, +16.5% no-vig edge, and +24.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Pending
UNDER 245.5
fanduel -114
Projection
219.4
Proj. gap
-26.1
Model win
63.2%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+13.2%
Model-implied EV
+18.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 219.4 is 26.1 below the 245.5 line.
Model win probability 63.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 63.2% model win, +13.2% no-vig edge, and +18.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
Pending
OVER 60.5
fanduel -114
Projection
79.2
Proj. gap
+18.7
Model win
60.7%
No-vig market
50.0%
No-vig edge
+10.7%
Model-implied EV
+13.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 79.2 is 18.7 above the 60.5 line.
Model win probability 60.7% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +10.7% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 60.7% model win, +10.7% no-vig edge, and +13.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
Pending
UNDER 1.5
fanduel -112
Projection
1.3
Proj. gap
-0.2
Model win
57.9%
No-vig market
49.4%
No-vig edge
+8.6%
Model-implied EV
+9.7%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 1.3 is 0.2 below the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 57.9% vs 49.4% no-vig market probability creates a +8.6% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 57.9% model win, +8.6% no-vig edge, and +9.7% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY
Other lines PDR reviewed
Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.
Did not qualify
Model side: UNDER 2.5
fanduel -180
Projection2.4
Proj. gap-0.1
Model win55.2%
No-vig market60.1%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-14.1%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 3.5
fanduel -102
Projection4.1
Proj. gap+0.6
Model win47.0%
No-vig market47.2%
No-vig edge-0.2%
Model-implied EV-7.0%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 44.5
fanduel -114
Projection56.3
Proj. gap+11.8
Model win50.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge+0.2%
Model-implied EV-5.7%
Why it did not qualify:
Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154