WEEK 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2:25 PM CST

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots

7 qualified model plays · 4 modeled lines did not qualify · 0 graded - 7 pending
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MODEL OVERVIEW

What the board is seeing

Qualified plays 7 Published sides that cleared the current model thresholds.
Avg model win 72.7% Average estimated win probability across this game's qualified plays.
Avg no-vig edge +23.5% Model probability minus the market's no-vig implied probability.
Avg model-implied EV +38.8% Average modeled return using the published side price.

Projection gap is the raw difference between PDR's projection and the sportsbook line. No-vig edge is the probability advantage after removing sportsbook hold. They answer different questions.

How the model works →
QUALIFIED PLAYS

Game prop board

Ranked by the frozen published model board.

#1 MODEL PLAY

Jordan Love

Passing yards
Pending
UNDER 276.5
fanduel -114
Projection 186.2
Proj. gap -90.3
Model win 88.2%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +38.2%
Model-implied EV +65.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 186.2 is 90.3 below the 276.5 line.
Model win probability 88.2% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +38.2% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 88.2% model win, +38.2% no-vig edge, and +65.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#2 MODEL PLAY

Christian Watson

Receiving yards
Pending
UNDER 73.5
fanduel -114
Projection 61.9
Proj. gap -11.6
Model win 77.0%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +27.0%
Model-implied EV +44.5%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 61.9 is 11.6 below the 73.5 line.
Model win probability 77.0% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +27.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 77.0% model win, +27.0% no-vig edge, and +44.5% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#3 MODEL PLAY

Tucker Kraft

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel -114
Projection 3.8
Proj. gap -0.7
Model win 75.1%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +25.1%
Model-implied EV +40.9%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 3.8 is 0.7 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 75.1% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +25.1% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 75.1% model win, +25.1% no-vig edge, and +40.9% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#4 MODEL PLAY

Christian Watson

Receptions
Pending
UNDER 4.5
fanduel +112
Projection 4.0
Proj. gap -0.5
Model win 72.2%
No-vig market 44.1%
No-vig edge +28.0%
Model-implied EV +53.0%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 4.0 is 0.5 below the 4.5 line.
Model win probability 72.2% vs 44.1% no-vig market probability creates a +28.0% edge.
Qualified with 2154 residual samples, 72.2% model win, +28.0% no-vig edge, and +53.0% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 2154
#5 MODEL PLAY

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 54.5
fanduel -114
Projection 78.8
Proj. gap +24.3
Model win 68.6%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +18.6%
Model-implied EV +28.8%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 78.8 is 24.3 above the 54.5 line.
Model win probability 68.6% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +18.6% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 68.6% model win, +18.6% no-vig edge, and +28.8% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
#6 MODEL PLAY

Drake Maye

Passing TDs
Pending
OVER 1.5
fanduel -118
Projection 2.0
Proj. gap +0.5
Model win 64.7%
No-vig market 50.6%
No-vig edge +14.1%
Model-implied EV +19.6%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 2.0 is 0.5 above the 1.5 line.
Model win probability 64.7% vs 50.6% no-vig market probability creates a +14.1% edge.
Qualified with 516 residual samples, 64.7% model win, +14.1% no-vig edge, and +19.6% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 516
#7 MODEL PLAY

Josh Jacobs

Rushing yards
Pending
OVER 43.5
fanduel -114
Projection 64.5
Proj. gap +21.0
Model win 63.4%
No-vig market 50.0%
No-vig edge +13.4%
Model-implied EV +19.1%
WHY THIS PLAY
Projection 64.5 is 21.0 above the 43.5 line.
Model win probability 63.4% vs 50.0% no-vig market probability creates a +13.4% edge.
Qualified with 796 residual samples, 63.4% model win, +13.4% no-vig edge, and +19.1% model-implied EV; publication floors are 500 samples, 57.5% win, +5.0% edge, and +5.0% EV.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Other lines PDR reviewed

Context only. These are not published recommendations and are not graded.

MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Drake Maye

Passing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 230.5
fanduel -114
Projection230.8
Proj. gap+0.3
Model win49.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-0.8%
Model-implied EV-7.6%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Drake Maye

Rushing yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 25.5
fanduel -114
Projection28.1
Proj. gap+2.6
Model win40.5%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-9.5%
Model-implied EV-24.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 796
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Jordan Love

Passing TDs
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 1.5
fanduel -112
Projection1.6
Proj. gap+0.1
Model win51.4%
No-vig market49.4%
No-vig edge+2.0%
Model-implied EV-2.8%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 516
MODELED - DID NOT QUALIFY

Tucker Kraft

Receiving yards
Did not qualify
Model side: OVER 45.5
fanduel -114
Projection54.1
Proj. gap+8.6
Model win45.2%
No-vig market50.0%
No-vig edge-4.8%
Model-implied EV-15.1%
Why it did not qualify: Model win probability did not clear the publication floor.
Historical residual sample: 2154
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